Will Donald Trump’s second state visit be a diplomatic disaster?

There are two things Donald Trump seems to value that money can’t buy. One is the Nobel Peace Prize; the other a chance to hobnob with royalty.

As the US president prepares for an “unprecedented” second state visit to the UK, all eyes will be on Keir Starmer and King Charles as they look to perform a potentially perilous diplomatic dance.

The PM will be hoping the “gilt-edged reception” laid on by the King “will help to deliver the UK’s message on awkward issues such as Ukraine and trade tariffs”, said the BBC. “And if anyone can get the US president’s attention and influence him, surely King Charles III and the Royal Family can.”

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What did the commentators say?

To call Trump divisive would be an understatement. A YouGov poll published in July found the British public were split about whether this week’s state visit should even go ahead.

Those opposed to the trip accuse the government of “legitimising a leader they say has fuelled division, weakened democratic norms and dismissed the urgency of climate change”, said The Independent.

“Others argue that diplomacy requires pragmatism” and “whatever one thinks of Trump personally”, he remains “a critical ally for trade, defence and global security”.

With tensions already running high, the events of the past week have transpired to make the president’s visit even more politically fraught.

The fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk has fuelled Trump’s attacks on the left, ramped up rhetoric about free speech and “intensified the consideration of potential threats”, said The New York Times. Then there was the massive far-right rally in London on Saturday, when protesters clashed with police and Elon Musk called for the effective overthrow of the government. The “Unite the Kingdom” rally was condemned by Starmer, who is under pressure to do more to tackle rising nationalist sentiment, which is being driven by US figures with links to the president.

But it is the sacking of UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein that is “especially awkward” and “threatens to overshadow the proceedings”, said The Guardian.

“All three major figures involved in the trip are embarrassingly tangled in the Epstein web, and have no wish to be reminded of it,” said Sean O’Grady in The Independent; Trump “because of past association”, Starmer “via Lord Mandelson”; and the King through his brother Prince Andrew.

“The uncomfortable chill that will descend at the mention of Jeffrey Epstein from the media will be unbearable for those present and tangible even to a television audience. It will be quite the moment.”

For all the focus on palace pomp and political psychodrama, it is easy to forget the bigger picture. “The primary objective of the state visit is to shore up the emotional connection the president holds with Britain, and the secondary objective is to demonstrate a modern geopolitical underpinning for the special relationship,” said Sophia Gaston, an analyst at the Centre for Statecraft and National Security at King’s College London.

In practice, said Liam Byrne, chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, on Politico, this means convincing Trump that “for all his unhappiness with America’s trade deals of yesterday, the future is the greater prize – and by working together, our countries can build a deeper partnership that helps keep the West safer, stronger and richer at a pivotal moment in world history”.

What next?

Because of the many potential pitfalls, this will be an especially “unusual and carefully crafted” state visit, said the BBC, with Windsor Castle “being used like a royal theme park”.

Trump is scheduled to arrive in London on Tuesday evening for a whirlwind one-and-a-half-day visit, packed with a series of events involving Starmer and the royal family. This means he will spend little time in the capital itself and, with Parliament in recess, will sidestep any awkward interaction with hostile MPs.

Despite these efforts to keep the US president away from the British public and unscripted moments to a minimum, it is impossible to predict what will happen when “the tangerine tyrant/saviour of Western civilisation, touches down”, said O’Grady.

“For all concerned, it could just as easily turn out to be a triumph as a disaster, with a mixture of both the more likely outcome. It should certainly be eventful.”