trumped by desantis
DeSantis led the poll results with 39 percent of the vote, followed by Trump with 37 percent. The 2-point gap separating them is within the margin of error. Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third with 9 percent, followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 6 percent. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) each polled at 1 percent.
Trump dominated a similar poll conducted in October 2021, winning 43 percent of the vote while DeSantis received just 18 percent.
In a Twitter thread responding to the poll, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat broke the 2024 primary electorate into three camps. First, the "ideological, high-information conservative voter[s]" who supported Cruz in the 2016 presidential primary. Second, the "disaffected/populist vote[rs]," who backed Trump in 2016. Third, "the establishment bloc," which went for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R).
Douthat predicted that, in a contested primary, DeSantis would win the first group, Trump would win the second, and the third would split their vote between Pence and Haley. DeSantis would win, Douthat wrote, "if the [establishment] bloc backs him and he cuts into the more disaffected/populist vote."
The poll surveyed 318 likely GOP primary voters between June 16 and June 20 and has an error margin of 5.5 percent.