DeSantis outperforms Trump in NH primary poll

Likely 2024 Republican presidential primary voters in New Hampshire prefer Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to former President Donald Trump, a University of New Hampshire poll found.
DeSantis led the poll results with 39 percent of the vote, followed by Trump with 37 percent. The 2-point gap separating them is within the margin of error. Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third with 9 percent, followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 6 percent. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) each polled at 1 percent.
Trump dominated a similar poll conducted in October 2021, winning 43 percent of the vote while DeSantis received just 18 percent.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
In a Twitter thread responding to the poll, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat broke the 2024 primary electorate into three camps. First, the "ideological, high-information conservative voter[s]" who supported Cruz in the 2016 presidential primary. Second, the "disaffected/populist vote[rs]," who backed Trump in 2016. Third, "the establishment bloc," which went for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R).
Douthat predicted that, in a contested primary, DeSantis would win the first group, Trump would win the second, and the third would split their vote between Pence and Haley. DeSantis would win, Douthat wrote, "if the [establishment] bloc backs him and he cuts into the more disaffected/populist vote."
The poll surveyed 318 likely GOP primary voters between June 16 and June 20 and has an error margin of 5.5 percent.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Grayson Quay was the weekend editor at TheWeek.com. His writing has also been published in National Review, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Modern Age, The American Conservative, The Spectator World, and other outlets. Grayson earned his M.A. from Georgetown University in 2019.
-
August 10 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Sunday's political cartoons include a global plastics problem, GOP enthusiasm over tariffs, and more
-
5 thin-skinned cartoons about shooting the messenger
Cartoons Artists take on unfavorable weather, a look in the mirror, and more
-
Is Trump's new peacemaking model working in DR Congo?
Talking Point Truce brokered by the US president in June is holding, but foundations of a long-term peace have let to be laid
-
DHS preps for major ICE expansion, rankling local law enforcement
IN THE SPOTLIGHT As the Trump administration positions ICE as the primary federal police force, its recruitment efforts have been met with a less-than-enthusiastic response
-
Trump officials reinstating 2 Confederate monuments
Speed Read The administration has plans to 'restore Confederate names and symbols' discarded in the wake of George Floyd's 2020 murder
-
Trump nominates Powell critic for vacant Fed seat
speed read Stephen Miran, the chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers and a fellow critic of Fed chair Jerome Powell, has been nominated to fill a seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
-
JD Vance rises as MAGA heir apparent
IN THE SPOTLIGHT The vice president is taking an increasingly proactive role in a MAGA movement roiled by scandal and anxious about a post-Trump future
-
Congress should 'step in' to block Trump's White House ballroom makeover
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
ICE scraps age limits amid hiring push
Speed Read Anyone 18 or older can now apply to be an ICE agent
-
Trump's global tariffs take effect, with new additions
Speed Read Tariffs on more than 90 US trading partners went into effect, escalating the global trade war
-
House committee subpoenas Epstein files
Speed Read The House Oversight Committee has issued a subpoena to the Justice Department for its Jeffrey Epstein files with an Aug. 19 deadline