Is Omicron less severe? It's complicated.
How bad is Omicron? That question is riveting scientists and policymakers as the latest coronavirus variant rampages across the world. We know for sure that it is much, much more contagious than previous variants, given how it has gotten loose in countries like Australia that previously managed to halt transmission entirely. But how about the severity of the illness it causes?
On the one hand, it is known with reasonable certainty that Omicron will cause less severe illness. A preprint study in The Lancet recently measured the first month of the Omicron wave in Gauteng province in South Africa against the same period of the Beta and Delta waves, so as to get an apples-to-apples comparison. They found that while there were vastly more cases in the Omicron wave, a far smaller share were hospitalized (4.9 percent versus 18.9 percent for Beta and 13.7 percent Delta) and of those hospitalizations, a much smaller share had severe symptoms (28.8 percent versus 60.1 percent and 66.9 percent, respectively). However, a much larger share of Omicron hospitalizations were children this time, probably because of very limited vaccination in that group.
Again, this has not been peer-reviewed yet, but it fits with reported coverage as well as South African statistics.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A large portion of this difference between Omicron and Delta is certainly because of widespread population immunity. The vast majority of South Africans have had a coronavirus infection already, plus about 31 percent have at least one dose of vaccine. While Omicron is often getting around natural immunity or vaccination (get boosted!), that still means milder illness in general.
But some of the difference is probably also because Omicron is inherently less severe. Several pre-print animal studies suggest that the mutations that make it so incredibly contagious and evasive to prior immunity also make it less able to infect the lungs — where the previous variants wreaked their worst havoc.
That is all to the good. But increased contagiousness can compensate for that lessened severity with sheer numbers of infections. Sure enough, across the United States, the staggeringly rapid spread of Omicron is swamping clinics and hospitals that were already reeling from two years of nearly nonstop pandemic. Burnout, post-traumatic stress disorder, and simple exhaustion have badly eroded the ranks of medical staff, and thousands of them have also caught Omicron. The remainder are dealing with yet another surge of patients — some of whom are prone to assaulting workers.
It would be a good idea to hunker down and avoid the emergency room if at all possible for about the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Ryan Cooper is a national correspondent at TheWeek.com. His work has appeared in the Washington Monthly, The New Republic, and the Washington Post.
-
'Biden is smart to keep the border-security pressure on'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Bird flu worries mount as virus found in milk, cows
Speed Read The FDA found traces of the virus in pasteurized grocery store milk
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Palazzo Durazzo Suites in Genoa: a palatial gem in northern Italy
The Week Recommends Live your Italian dream in this astonishing and recently restored palace in the heart of the city
By Nick Hendry Published
-
Covid inquiry: the most important questions for Boris Johnson
Talking Point Former PM has faced weeks of heavy criticism from former colleagues at the public hearing
By The Week Staff Published
-
Arcturus: the new Covid variant surging in India
feature The highly infectious Omicron subvariant has also been reported in dozens of countries including the UK
By Harriet Marsden Published
-
How serious a threat is new Omicron Covid variant XBB.1.5?
feature The so-called Kraken strain can bind more tightly to ‘the doors the virus uses to enter our cells’
By Chas Newkey-Burden Published
-
No, it's not over
Talking Point New Omicron subvariants are headed our way
By William Falk Published
-
BA.5: Is it time to step up the COVID fight again?
opinion The sharpest opinions on the debate from around the web
By Harold Maass Published
-
BA.5: how worried should we be about the new Omicron variant?
Today's Big Question Mutation described as ‘worst version yet’ by one expert, but others have downplayed fears
By The Week Staff Published
-
BA.4 and BA.5: what the two new Omicron variants mean for the Covid pandemic
feature Health experts say we have entered the next wave of Covid-19 infections
By The Week Staff Published
-
Why are there so many new Omicron sub-variants?
feature Latest sub-variants of Covid-19 mutation are fuelling fresh waves of infections worldwide
By The Week Staff Published