Should we be worried about declining birth rates?

The global population has been growing at a much slower pace than before and some countries' populations have actually decreased. In 2023, the U.S. birth rate dropped to a record low of approximately 1.7 births per woman, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

The required replacement rate for a population to be maintained is 2.1 children per woman, but many countries are no longer reaching that. South Korea currently has the lowest birth rate in the world, at just 0.72 children per woman. "What we are experiencing now, and have been experiencing for decades, is something that we have not seen before in human history, which is a large-scale, cross-national, cross-cultural shift towards preferring and having smaller families," Jennifer D. Sciubba, a demographer and the author of "8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World," said to CNN.

Some experts claim falling populations could be a positive development, while others worry about the future of an aging society. "Not having children, or having fewer children, is becoming more socially acceptable," Sarah Hayford, the director of the Institute for Population Research at The Ohio State University, said to The Hill. "As a result, people are weighing more carefully the decision to have children." 

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The future is feeble

A declining population could spell particular trouble for older generations. "People are living longer, so populations as a whole have fewer people of working age who can provide for older people and others who are economically inactive," said New Scientist. This problem has become even more significant in the past few years. "Since the pandemic, labor shortages have become endemic throughout developed countries," said The Wall Street Journal. "That will only worsen in coming years as the postcrisis fall in birthrates yields an ever-shrinking inflow of young workers, placing more strain on healthcare and retirement systems."

U.S. systems like Medicare and Social Security, which rely on the contributions of younger generations, will be affected by the population decline. "As life expectancy increases it becomes increasingly difficult to afford ever longer retirements," said the BBC. "Something has to give, and working longer is the obvious solution." There have even been discussions about raising the U.S. retirement age from 65 to as old as 70. 

The changing population can also drastically alter the demographics of the nation. "America's population is growing at about the same rate as those of Britain and France," said The Economist. "But America is different from Britain or France in that its population is much more prone to move around the country. Some parts of America are extraordinarily successful at attracting new people." This is problematic because "once a place starts shrinking, it can set in motion reinforcing cycles that accelerate the decline." For example, "when there is far more housing available than people to fill it, the result tends to be a collapse in the value of homes."

No worries here

Despite the apparent negatives of an aging population, there are also benefits. To begin with, this is the result of "people living healthier and longer lives," and it will result in "reduced needs for infrastructure and lower ecological impacts," said conservation biologist Kirsten Stade in an opinion piece for Newsweek. A growing population is more taxing on the environment, requiring more resources and electricity. "Providing even 'green' energy for 8 billion and counting will have ecological impacts that are seldom discussed," Stade added.

People who are concerned over population declines may also fail to consider whether having more children is actually good for society. "Have studies shown that women and couples are happier if they have more children? Not to my knowledge," said Monica Hesse in a perspective piece for The Washington Post. "In fact, many show the opposite: that although children may bring tremendous joy, they also bring tremendous stress to marriages." Having and raising children is a large responsibility that places a disproportionate burden on women.

There is also a bigger ethical question around dictating a required replacement rate in order to spur population growth. "There's something that feels ugly around proclamations about what the population or the birth rate 'should' be — especially given the horrific history of mass sterilizations conducted in the name of 'fixing' high birth rates for the sake of the world," said Kelsey Piper at Vox. "And there's also something distasteful about viewing children instrumentally, about creating entire new human beings for the sake of some national political project."