Here's the crucial disagreement that's splitting the Federal Reserve


The minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released today. On the face of it, they don't tell us anything the Fed's press release that month didn't reveal: The FOMC feels the crucial trends — rates of job creation, the return of people to labor force, etc — are all improving at a modest-but-encouraging pace. They anticipate inflation will begin rising in the near future, and they'll begin slowly taking interest rates off the zero lower bound.
But one chunk of the minutes does get at a crucial disagreement amongst the FOMC members:
Most members saw room for some additional progress in reducing labor market slack, although several viewed current labor market conditions as at or very close to those consistent with maximum employment. Many members thought that labor market underutilization would be largely eliminated in the near term if economic activity evolved as they expected. However, several were concerned that labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment could take longer to achieve, noting, for example, the lack of convincing signs of accelerating wages. [Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee July 28–29, 2015]
"Maximum employment" (or "full employment") is where jobs are so plentiful that employers can only gain new workers by outbidding other businesses with higher wage offers. If productivity throughout the economy increases at a slower pace than those bids, inflation will start rising. So the Fed hikes interest rates to keep inflation contained.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The problem is, while the headline unemployment rate of 5.3 percent is close to what's generally viewed as maximum employment, the other signs aren’t there. Wage growth and the inflation rate are still flat, and the portion of the population that's employed is still below its pre-2008 peak.
In fact, that 2008 peak was below its previous peak before the 2001 recession. So there's an argument in some quarters that not only should the Fed wait for full employment, but it shouldn't raise interest rates even after full employment has been achieved — just let the economy run hot for a while to repair the previous damage.
At any rate, this disagreement — between people who think maximum employment is nigh upon us, and those who think it's still a ways off — is splitting the FOMC itself. It's probably the most important yet under appreciated debate currently going on in economic policy.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeff Spross was the economics and business correspondent at TheWeek.com. He was previously a reporter at ThinkProgress.
-
The Assassin: action-packed caper is 'terrific fun'
The Week Recommends Keeley Hawes stars as a former hitwoman drawn out of retirement for 'one last job'
-
The EPA wants to green-light approval for a twice-banned herbicide
Under the radar Dicamba has been found to harm ecosystems
-
Crossword: July 30, 2025
The Week's daily crossword
-
Samsung to make Tesla chips in $16.5B deal
Speed Read Tesla has signed a deal to get its next-generation chips from Samsung
-
FCC greenlights $8B Paramount-Skydance merger
Speed Read The Federal Communications Commission will allow Paramount to merge with the Hollywood studio Skydance
-
Tesla reports plummeting profits
Speed Read The company may soon face more problems with the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits
-
Dollar faces historic slump as stocks hit new high
Speed Read While stocks have recovered post-Trump tariffs, the dollar has weakened more than 10% this year
-
Economists fear US inflation data less reliable
speed read The Labor Department is collecting less data for its consumer price index due to staffing shortages
-
Crypto firm Coinbase hacked, faces SEC scrutiny
Speed Read The Securities and Exchange Commission has also been investigating whether Coinbase misstated its user numbers in past disclosures
-
Starbucks baristas strike over dress code
speed read The new uniform 'puts the burden on baristas' to buy new clothes, said a Starbucks Workers United union delegate
-
Warren Buffet announces surprise retirement
speed read At the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the billionaire investor named Vice Chairman Greg Abel his replacement