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Poll Watch

Trump is losing his base and Democrats have lost the white working class, internal polling shows

The 2018 midterm elections are still 15 months away, and the 2020 general election is even further down the line, but the news is already bad. If you are a Republican, a new poll from Republican pollsters Firehouse Strategies has some sobering news about President Trump's falling support among his base, but Democrats also have some terrible numbers among white voters without a college education in a recent internal poll.

The Firehouse poll looked at likely midterm voters in four key swing states — Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — and found Trump losing support especially among Republicans, especially when it comes to perceived honesty. "Just 6 months in office, Trump is getting into dangerously low territory in key swing states," Firehouse partner Alex Conant tells Axios. Trump's base of support has shrunk to 28.6 percent who have a "strongly favorable" view of him, including only 44.9 percent of Republicans, versus 35.3 percent of voters in those four states who felt the same in April. If Trump doesn't repeal ObamaCare and overhaul the tax code by the midterms, an increasing number of voters say they won't vote for the GOP incumbent.

"The Trump base is far bigger & stronger than ever before (despite some phony Fake News polling)," Trump tweeted Monday morning, citing rallies he has held in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia.

The Democratic poll, conducted by the Democrats' House Majority PAC, found that Trump is more popular than congressional Democrats and Republicans with the white working class, and that the GOP has an edge over congressional Democrats on everything but health care. On the economy and job creation, congressional Republicans held a brutal 35-point lead, but also bested Democrats on things like "will fight for people like you," "understands what it is like for regular Americans," and "will reduce the power of special interests in Congress." When House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and other Democrats "seek to make the case for a 'better deal,' they face an audience primed to disbelieve every word they say," says Thomas Edsall at The New York Times.

Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus contacted 2,901 voters in the four swing states in automated calls from Aug. 1-3, and their poll has an overall margin of error of ±2.1 percentage points. Expedition Strategies and Normington, Petts, and Associates polled 1,000 white adults without bachelor's degrees from June 27 to July 13, and their poll has a margin of error of ±3.1 points.