The Alabama special election polls are an absolute mess

(Image credit: Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images)

published 11 December 2017

Alabama Senate candidates Roy Moore and Doug Jones are locked in a dead heat ahead of Tuesday's "all but impossible" to predict election. Although a Fox News poll published Monday shows Jones, the Democratic candidate, up 10 points, a competing poll by Emerson shows Republican contender Moore up 9 points. RealClearPolitics' average between Nov. 27-Dec. 10 shows Moore up just 2.5 points.

"Turnout is always tough to predict in a special election, especially one two weeks before Christmas," NBC News writes. "Even establishing a baseline of expectations for the race is slippery, since few have bothered polling a state where elections are generally predetermined for candidates with an 'R' next to their name on the ballot."

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The betting markets do have a favorite candidate, giving "Moore about an 80 percent chance of victory," FiveThirtyEight writes — or "roughly the same chance they gave Hillary Clinton just before the 2016 presidential election."

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Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.