Here's why Trump probably won't try to get rid of Mueller


President Trump has publicly toyed with idea of firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller, though he has of late refrained from talking about it on Twitter, reportedly on the advice of his attorney. That silence has not reassured the president's critics that Mueller's investigation into alleged Trump campaign involvement in Russian election meddling efforts will proceed undisturbed, so congressional Democrats have called for additional protections of Mueller's job.
But a new FiveThirtyEight analysis published Monday argues "Mueller's investigation is more secure than it might seem — and that more protections don't necessarily produce more effective prosecutions." The case is based on a review of the history of special prosecutors since the first one was appointed in 1875. Presidents have typically refrained from interference with these probes, and on the rare occasions of White House intervention, public uproar has served to preserve the investigations over the presidents' objections.
This history suggests Trump firing Mueller would mainly be an act of self-sabotage. "As long as [Mueller] doesn't do something to jeopardize" his reputation for competence, "Trump would have no justification for dismissing him," John Q. Barrett, a law professor who investigated the Iran-Contra scandal, told FiveThirtyEight. "And if he did, he'd have to appoint an equally credible replacement, or there would be really catastrophic political consequences."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Bonnie Kristian was a deputy editor and acting editor-in-chief of TheWeek.com. She is a columnist at Christianity Today and author of Untrustworthy: The Knowledge Crisis Breaking Our Brains, Polluting Our Politics, and Corrupting Christian Community (forthcoming 2022) and A Flexible Faith: Rethinking What It Means to Follow Jesus Today (2018). Her writing has also appeared at Time Magazine, CNN, USA Today, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, and The American Conservative, among other outlets.
-
Mortgage reform: is Rachel Reeves betting the house on City rules shake-up?
Today's Big Question Reforms could create up to 36,000 additional mortgages next year
-
The 'extraordinary' trials of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon
The Explainer Couple claim they were 'misunderstood' after going on the run with newborn baby
-
Is AI killing the internet?
AI-powered browsers and search engines are threatening the death of the open web
-
Secret Service 'failures' on Trump shooting
Speed Read Two new reports detail security breakdowns that led to attempts on the president's life
-
Trump set to hit Canada with 35% tariffs
Speed Read The president accused Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of failing to stop the cross-border flow of fentanyl
-
Mahmoud Khalil files $20M claim over ICE detention
Speed Read This is the 'first damages complaint' brought by an individual targeted by the Trump's administration's 'crackdown' on Gaza war protesters
-
Trump threatens Brazil with 50% tariffs
Speed Read He accused Brazil's current president of leading a 'witch hunt' against far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro
-
AI scammer fakes Rubio messages to top officials
Speed Read The unknown individual mimicked Rubio in voice and text messages sent to multiple government officials
-
SCOTUS greenlights Trump's federal firings
speed read The Trump administration can conduct mass federal firings without Congress' permission, the Supreme Court ruled
-
New tariffs set on 14 trading partners
Speed Read A new slate of tariffs will begin August 1 on imports from Japan, South Korea, Thailand and more
-
Elon Musk launching 'America Party'
Speed Read The tech mogul promised to form a new political party if Trump's megabill passed Congress