Why early voting states might not matter for Joe Biden


Former Vice President Joe Biden might not be the Democratic presidential candidate of choice in the upcoming Iowa caucus. Or in the New Hampshire primary, for that matter. But that doesn't mean he should be sweating it, The New York Times reports.
That's because Iowa and New Hampshire, while crucial early voting states that can help swing momentum, aren't very racially diverse, and don't actually carry many delegates. Biden's campaign, instead, is banking on the possibility that he'll maintain his lead among black voters. As the Times notes, racially diverse areas like those in California, Texas, and the South result in a larger share of delegates needed to win the nomination. And Biden remains the candidate to beat in a lot of those places.
Observers have noted that Biden is in a similar position to Hillary Clinton in 2008 before former President Barack Obama surged. But Cornell Belcher, the pollster who helped conduct Obama's South Carolina research, said he doesn't see any of the other candidates replicating Obama's efforts to reach out to black voters there. If they were, he said, "they would already have the resources and infrastructure on the ground in South Carolina," which is the first Southern state to vote.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Nothing is a given, but Biden may be able to circumvent a disappointing showing in Iowa or New Hampshire by looking ahead. "It's not that he's weaker than people think," Birmingham, Alabama, Mayor Randall Woodfin said of Biden. "He's much stronger." Read more at The New York Times.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
June 28 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Saturday's political cartoons include stupid wars, a critical media, and mask standards
-
Thai fish pie with crispy turmeric potatoes recipe
The Week Recommends Tasty twist on the Lancashire hot pot is given a golden glow
-
Palestine Action: protesters or terrorists?
Talking Point Damaging RAF equipment at Brize Norton blurs line between activism and sabotage, but proscription is a drastic step
-
Canadian man dies in ICE custody
Speed Read A Canadian citizen with permanent US residency died at a federal detention center in Miami
-
GOP races to revise megabill after Senate rulings
Speed Read A Senate parliamentarian ruled that several changes to Medicaid included in Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" were not permissible
-
Supreme Court lets states ax Planned Parenthood funds
Speed Read The court ruled that Planned Parenthood cannot sue South Carolina over the state's effort to deny it funding
-
Trump plans Iran talks, insists nuke threat gone
Speed Read 'The war is done' and 'we destroyed the nuclear,' said President Trump
-
Trump embraces NATO after budget vow, charm offensive
Speed Read The president reversed course on his longstanding skepticism of the trans-Atlantic military alliance
-
Trump judge pick told DOJ to defy courts, lawyer says
Speed Read Emil Bove, a top Justice Department official nominated by Trump for a lifetime seat, stands accused of encouraging government lawyers to mislead the courts and defy judicial orders
-
Mamdani upsets Cuomo in NYC mayoral primary
Speed Read Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani beat out Andrew Cuomo in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary
-
Supreme Court clears third-country deportations
Speed Read The court allowed Trump to temporarily resume deporting migrants to countries they aren't from