Why early voting states might not matter for Joe Biden


Former Vice President Joe Biden might not be the Democratic presidential candidate of choice in the upcoming Iowa caucus. Or in the New Hampshire primary, for that matter. But that doesn't mean he should be sweating it, The New York Times reports.
That's because Iowa and New Hampshire, while crucial early voting states that can help swing momentum, aren't very racially diverse, and don't actually carry many delegates. Biden's campaign, instead, is banking on the possibility that he'll maintain his lead among black voters. As the Times notes, racially diverse areas like those in California, Texas, and the South result in a larger share of delegates needed to win the nomination. And Biden remains the candidate to beat in a lot of those places.
Observers have noted that Biden is in a similar position to Hillary Clinton in 2008 before former President Barack Obama surged. But Cornell Belcher, the pollster who helped conduct Obama's South Carolina research, said he doesn't see any of the other candidates replicating Obama's efforts to reach out to black voters there. If they were, he said, "they would already have the resources and infrastructure on the ground in South Carolina," which is the first Southern state to vote.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Nothing is a given, but Biden may be able to circumvent a disappointing showing in Iowa or New Hampshire by looking ahead. "It's not that he's weaker than people think," Birmingham, Alabama, Mayor Randall Woodfin said of Biden. "He's much stronger." Read more at The New York Times.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
Hospital league tables: how does the new ranking system work?
The Explainer NHS trusts are now ranked according to six performance indicators, with leaders of low-performing facilities facing penalties
-
Quiz of The Week: 6 – 12 September
Quiz Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
-
The week’s best photos
In Pictures A palace on fire, a shopping cart protest, and more
-
House posts lewd Epstein note attributed to Trump
Speed Read The estate of Jeffrey Epstein turned over the infamous 2003 birthday note from President Donald Trump
-
Supreme Court allows 'roving' race-tied ICE raids
Speed Read The court paused a federal judge's order barring agents from detaining suspected undocumented immigrants in LA based on race
-
South Korea to fetch workers detained in Georgia raid
Speed Read More than 300 South Korean workers detained in an immigration raid at a Hyundai plant will be released
-
Why are Trump's health rumors about more than just presidential fitness?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION Extended absences and unexplained bruises have raised concerns about both his well-being and his administration's transparency
-
DC sues Trump to end Guard 'occupation'
Speed Read D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb argues that the unsolicited military presence violates the law
-
RFK Jr. faces bipartisan heat in Senate hearing
Speed Read The health secretary defended his leadership amid CDC turmoil and deflected questions about the restricted availability of vaccines
-
White House defends boat strike as legal doubts mount
Speed Read Experts say there was no legal justification for killing 11 alleged drug-traffickers
-
Epstein accusers urge full file release, hint at own list
speed read A rally was organized by Reps. Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie, who are hoping to force a vote on their Epstein Files Transparency Act