Why Iran experts are skeptical about the significance of Tehran's new deal with Beijing


China and Iran struck a deal on Saturday that will last for 25 years. On the surface it seems meaningful; in exchange for a steady supply of oil, Beijing agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran, The New York Times reports. But there's skepticism among Middle East experts about whether it actually signals a significant new phase in Tehran-Beijing relations.
Dina Esfandiary, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group and co-author of a book about Iran's relations with China and Russia, told The Wall Street Journal the pact "allows Iran to be a little more intransigent," which could make "Europe and the U.S. a little more nervous because it looks like Iran may have a way out of economic strangulation." But she also tweeted that while it may be a "political and rhetorical win" for Iran, "it doesn't change much in its dealings with China for now." Esfandiary said she concurred with Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the founder of the think tank Bourse & Bazaar and a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who argued the $400 billion figure is "completely made up" and "illogical."
In a Bourse & Bazaar article published in September, Jacopo Scita, a doctoral fellow at the U.K.'s Durham University, wrote that the $400 billion figure — which is not included anywhere in the official text of the public agreement — came from an unreliable source, reasoning "the pattern of China-Iran trade" suggests such an investment was implausible. It's worth noting, however, that the Times is reporting $400 billion would be invested over the full 25 years, while Scita writes the source claimed the investment would take place over the first five years of a 25-year plan.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Either way, Batmangehlidj doesn't think the agreement, which other scholars agree is "vague" and "aspirational," should be overestimated, even if it is "geopolitically significant." "The framing that Iran is pursuing a unique relationship with China, that opens it to dependency, is incorrect," Batmangehlidj tweeted.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
China and Taiwan's war of words ahead of anniversary parade
Under The Radar Neighbours both claim to have led the fighting during World War Two
-
Epstein files: Maxwell courts a pardon
Feature A new prison transcript shows Ghislaine Maxwell praising Trump as 'a gentleman' while denying his involvement in the Epstein scandal
-
Pentagon readies military deployment in Chicago
Feature The Pentagon is preparing to deploy thousands of Illinois National Guard members to Chicago after Trump threatened to send troops into other major cities
-
China's Xi hosts Modi, Putin, Kim in challenge to US
Speed Read Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Asian leaders at an SCO summit
-
Russian strike on Kyiv kills 23, hits EU offices
Speed Read The strike was the second-largest since Russia invaded in 2022
-
UN votes to end Lebanon peacekeeping mission
Speed Read The Trump administration considers the UN's Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to be a 'waste of money'
-
Israeli double strike on Gaza hospital kills 20
Speed Read The dead include five journalists who worked for The Associated Press, Reuters and Al Jazeera
-
China is silently expanding its influence in American cities
Under the Radar New York City and San Francisco, among others, have reportedly been targeted
-
Kyiv marks independence as Russia downplays peace
Speed Read President Vladimir Putin has no plans to meet with Zelenskyy for peace talks pushed by President Donald Trump
-
Trump halts Gaza visas as Israelis protest war
Speed Read Laura Loomer voiced her concerns over injured Palestinian kids being brought to the US for treatment and a potential 'Islamic invasion'
-
Russia tries Ukraine land grab before Trump summit
Speed Read The incursion may be part of Putin's efforts to boost his bargaining position