Will the 2014 midterms be a wave election?
As Republicans shut down the federal government in early October and took a pummeling in the opinion polls, many Democrats started to talk about the possibility — even the likelihood — that they would take back control of the House of Representatives.
But that narrative crashed as quickly as Healthcare.gov. Republicans said they were vindicated that the Affordable Care Act didn't work and that the federal government had no business running a health care exchange. They started counting the Senate seats they would win by hanging the issue around the necks of Democratic incumbents.
Who's right?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Political Wire recently talked to political scientist John Sides about his new forecasting model for the 2014 midterm elections. It’s based on historical data going back to 1952 and uses both national indicators and district-level data.
Sides sees no big wave coming and only a small shift of seats in the House, most likely to the Republican side of the aisle. One reason for that: There just aren’t enough toss up seats that Republicans have a chance to win. They won most of those seats during the 2010 wave that brought them control of the House.
Sides acknowledges that it’s early and the result may change in the coming months. But he points out that this type of electoral forecasting doesn’t overreact to news stories like the government shutdown or the bungled ObamaCare rollout. It's an important lesson for anyone reading political news.
Listen to the whole interview. It’s fascinating.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Subscribe via iTunes or RSS to get podcast episodes automatically downloaded.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political websites. He also runs Wonk Wire and the Political Dictionary. Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and COO of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. senator and governor. Goddard is also co-author of You Won — Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including The Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Christian Science Monitor. Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
-
Antony Gormley's Time Horizon – a 'judgmental army' of 100 cast-iron men
The Week Recommends Sculptures are 'everymen questioning the privilege of their surroundings' at the Norfolk stately home
By Adrienne Wyper, The Week UK Published
-
'King's horses take free rein through London'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Is pop music now too reliant on gossip?
Talking Point Taylor Swift's new album has prompted a flurry of speculation over who she is referring to in her songs
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published