The Supreme Court takes on 'ObamaCare': Will it hurt the president?
The nation's highest court will weigh the constitutionality of the president's signature achievement — and the 2012 election could hang in the balance
It's official. On Monday, the Supreme Court announced that it will consider the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act during its current term. Arguments will likely be held in March 2012, with a decision handed down by the end of June. The Supreme Court has reserved 5.5 hours for argument in this case — a modern record. There are four key issues the court will weigh: (1) The constitutionality of the individual mandate, which requires Americans to have health insurance; (2) Whether the rest of the law can stand if the mandate is struck down; (3) Whether the Anti-Injunction Act prevents a challenge to the mandate in the first place; and (4) Whether the law's expansion of Medicaid is constitutional. That culmination of the legal battle over health-care reform will likely be the "most dramatic constitutional confrontation in recent memory," and the case will be decided during the height of President Obama's re-election campaign. Is the timing a boon for Obama — or will it ruin his re-election chances?
It all depends how the court rules: If the Supreme Court ends up supporting "ObamaCare," Obama can claim vindication for the remainder of his re-election campaign, says Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. If the court strikes the law down, that's fatal for Obama's campaign. In one fell swoop, he'd lose his signature legislative achievement, and would have to spend the next several months trying to explain that embarrassing loss. "And explaining is not winning."
"Breaking: SCOTUS to review 'ObamaCare,' individual mandate this term"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Well, most signs point to a win for Obama: The Obama administration is betting that a favorable ruling will vindicate the president after years of "attacks on the law's constitutionality," says Massimo Calabresi at TIME. That may be a wise bet. A D.C. Court of Appeals opinion written last week by conservative judge Laurence Silberman was a major blow to those who argued that the individual mandate was unconstitutional. And don't forget an "equally devastating opinion" by former Clarence Thomas clerk Jeffrey Sutton at the 6th Circuit Court. With such "conservative stalwarts" on Obama's side, there's good reason to believe "Obama will get a win" at a crucial moment in the presidential campaign.
"SCOTUS to hear 'ObamaCare' before election"
Regardless, this case won't swing the election: Let's assume the Supreme Court reaches its decision at the very end of June 2012, says Jonathan Bernstein at The Washington Post. That still leaves more than four months before the election — a "very long time in politics, especially for something that won't have any immediate tangible effect on people's lives." Voters have short memories. The decision will be critically important for the future of health care in the U.S., "but not for the 2012 elections."
"The Supremes will take on health care. But will it matter in 2012?"
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
'The House under GOP rule has become a hostile workplace'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
The Shohei Ohtani gambling scandal is about more than bad bets
In The Spotlight The firestorm surrounding one of baseball's biggest stars threatens to upend a generational legacy and professional sports at large
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Feds raid Diddy homes in alleged sex trafficking case
Speed Read Homeland Security raided the properties of hip hop mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Xi-Biden meeting: what's in it for both leaders?
Today's Big Question Two superpowers seek to stabilise relations amid global turmoil but core issues of security, trade and Taiwan remain
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will North Korea take advantage of Israel-Hamas conflict?
Today's Big Question Pyongyang's ties with Russia are 'growing and dangerous' amid reports it sent weapons to Gaza
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published