Will the Iowa caucuses be a Cain-Romney race?
Cain and Romney are polling neck and neck in the critical early voting state — even though they've only visited Iowa a combined four times this year
Just two months before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses officially kick off the Republican presidential race, an eagerly awaited Des Moines Register poll shows a virtual tie for the lead, with businessman Herman Cain at 23 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 22 percent. Their nearest rival is Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), who polls at 12 percent. The race's other Texan, Gov. Rick Perry, clocks in at 7 percent, while this summer's Ames straw poll winner, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), is at 8 percent. Of course, the race is still fluid — particularly after Sunday night's bombshell Politico report charging that Cain was twice accused by female employees of inappropriate "sexually suggestive behavior" in the 1990s. Still, with 71 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers saying business experience is more important than political experience, is Iowa becoming a two-man race between business candidates Romney and Cain?
Iowa is still Romney vs. "not-Romney": This poll is best summed up: "Elimination threatens several not-Romneys," says Jennifer Rubin at The Washington Post. Cain is just the latest "main vessel for the not-Romney votes." Still, it will be hard for his rivals to "puncture the Cain bubble" before Iowans caucus. And even if Cain lacks "staying power after Iowa," he could easily end the race for Perry and other second-stringers. Romney's steady mid-20s could also be enough for "a surprise win."
"New Iowa poll: Elimination threatens several not-Romneys"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
If Romney and Cain want to win, they need to show up: Right now this looks like "a two-way race at the top between largely absentee candidates," since Cain and Romney have visited Iowa a combined four times in 2011, says Jason Noble in The Des Moines Register. But 59 percent of caucus-goers are still on the fence, and you win caucuses with organization. Unless Cain and Romney make "heavier investments in a ground game," the Iowa race is still wide open.
"Absence has worked for Cain, Romney, but they'll need a ground game"
Iowa represents a real gamble for Romney: The former Massachusetts governor got burned badly in Iowa in 2008, when he invested heavily in the state only to get blown out by Mike Huckabee, says John Heilemann in New York. And though Romney's message to Iowa this year "hasn't quite been 'Drop dead,'" it's been pretty close. Unlike Cain, Romney doesn't need Iowa. He's focused on New Hampshire. And yet, with Iowa GOP operatives expecting Cain to implode, like Perry and Bachmann before him, Romney could plausibly win Iowa with just a little push. That would be a "knockout out blow to Perry," Romney's only real rival. But if he makes a play and loses, Romney could be humiliated and lose it all — again.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
'Good riddance to the televised presidential debate'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Caitlin Clark the No. 1 pick in bullish WNBA Draft
Speed Read As expected, she went to the Indiana Fever
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Today's political cartoons - April 16, 2024
Cartoons Tuesday's cartoons - sleepyhead, little people, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published