Higher toy prices from Trump's tariffs have arrived

The next time you buy an action figure or doll for your child, you may feel some pain at the checkout register. President Donald Trump's tariffs have begun to have a tangible effect on many foreign-made goods, and toys will be hit hard. Given that a majority of toys in the United States come from China, one of the primary countries targeted by the tariffs, economists say the price for the next big plaything may keep increasing.

Record-setting toy price hikes

The price of toys, games and playground equipment increased 2.2% from April to May 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the weeks after Trump began implementing his across-the-board tariffs. This represents a record price increase for toys and is significantly higher than the 0.1% total inflation rate.

The price increases for toys "capture the period after Trump unveiled his global reciprocal tariffs in April," and "experts say it's a gloomy indication of what's to come for the toy industry," said The Independent. This is especially true given the wide scale of toys that come from China, as "tariffs on Chinese imports — which at one point rocketed to 145% — are currently at 30% until mid-August."

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Toys were "particularly vulnerable to the tariffs because about 75% of the toys sold in the U.S. are made in China," said Business Insider. The president himself has even weighed in on the situation. "Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls," Trump told reporters, and the dolls might "cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally."

Toy inflation could be here to stay

It remains to be seen how widespread the effect of Trump's tariffs will be, but "analysts say the toy industry — which relies on a steady flow of relatively low-priced imports — offers clues into how higher costs could soon ripple through the economy," said The Washington Post. And while Trump's "administration gave the toy industry an exemption from the 25% tariffs on China during his first term, it has offered no such carve-outs this time."

The toy price increases are "unprecedented and largely driven by new U.S. trade policies," said Scripps News, and "prices could rise further" if this trend continues. As a result of the continuing back-and-forth, the "assumption that families will respond to higher costs by buying fewer toys has upended holiday plans for retailers," said the Post. Many toy stores are "treading cautiously, sticking to classics such as board games and dolls, and lower-priced games and craft supplies" instead of big-ticket items.

Some people, though, seem to think that this might not necessarily be a bad thing. "I am not the only parent who has noticed that toys seem cheaper and more plentiful than when we were kids," said Katie Notopoulos at Business Insider. "And I'm not the only parent who worries that the idea that toys are cheap, easily obtained with a click of the Amazon button and disposable is not in line with the values we want to impart on our kids."

But most in the industry remain skeptical of the price hikes. Toy stores are "doubling down on bestsellers and not trying anything new this year, because we just don't know what's going to happen," said Amy Rutherford, the owner of Pippin Toy in Alexandria, Virginia, to the Post. Consumers are "already moving to lower-dollar items — spending $30 on a plush toy instead of $75, for example — and I think that'll continue."