Just three months after taking charge of the House, Republicans have "fallen so far out of favor" with voters that they could lose control of the House to Democrats next year, according to Public Policy Polling. Forty-three percent of respondents in a new poll said House Republicans are doing a worse job than the Democrats did when they ran things, and only 36 percent think the GOP is doing better. Forty-six percent said they would vote for a Democrat if an election were held today, while 41 percent said they would back a Republican. Does this mean House Republicans are really in trouble?
Yes, the GOP's excesses will cost its candidates: The "extremism of the GOP" is bound to help Democrats in 2012, says David Nir at Daily Kos. It's one of the things keeping President Obama afloat "despite a still-sucky economy and middling-at-best approval ratings." When the elections roll around, the excesses of House Republicans will push independents to the Democrats, and encourage liberals to get out and vote. "The 2012 electorate will most definitely not look like the 2010 electorate."
"PPP's own poll shows bad news for Republicans"
No, this is liberal propaganda: PPP, which conducts some polls for Daily Kos, is "part of the left-wing messaging machine," says William Jacobson at Legal Insurrection. It always stuffs its sample groups with extra Democrats to skew the results — like in Wisconsin, where it "predicted the demise of Republicans," only to see voters evenly split in a recent Supreme Court election seen as a referendum on GOP Gov. Scott Walker. The truth is it's Democrats who should be worried, as voters flee their ranks and become independents.
"Another day, another nonsense PPP poll"
Neither party should be too confident: "Republicans often dismiss PPP results as being the biased work of a polling firm known to favor Democrats," says Steve Peoples at Roll Call. But the numbers do make it appear that independents who helped propel the GOP to victory last year have "shifted dramatically" to the other side. Still, these national results "may be too generalized to suggest massive swings in specific districts" that Democrats will need to regain the House majority.
"PPP: Independents Swing to Democrats"