Germany could be heading to the polls again as early as this autumn, after Angela Merkel’s main coalition partner resigned.
Andrea Nahles quit as leader of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) after a series of terrible election results which saw her party eclipsed by the Greens to finish third in the European elections for the first time in its modern history.
Nahles was the most vocal proponent of the SPD’s reluctant decision to form a third so-called “grand coalition” with Merkel’s conservatives.
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The SPD has been consistently sliding in the polls since it joined the “GroKo” in 2013. In March last year 66% of the party’s leadership voted in favour of entering another grand coalition despite losses at federal elections, including to the far-right AfD.
While it has argued it has put the nation’s interest above party politics, “voters have punished the SPD for its decision to step in as a governing coalition partner of last resort with ever more disastrous poll showings, culminating last weekend in the party being toppled in its stronghold city of Bremen after 70 years”, reports Reuters.
Nahles’ departure “potentially opens the door for an anti-coalition party leader – with anyone standing as a replacement likely to come under pressure from the party’s grassroots to quit government”, The Independent says.
“Some of Nahles’ most ardent critics want the centre-left party to abandon the coalition as soon as possible, in the hope that a spell in opposition will help the SPD regain credibility with voters and develop a sharper political profile,” says the Financial Times.
One of the most vocal of these Kevin Kuhnert, leader of the SPD’s youth wing, has called for the party to ditch the establishment alliance and renew itself outside of government. Meanwhile, the SPD's Olaf Scholz, who is also Germany's vice-chancellor and one of the few popular senior figures left in the party, told the Tagesspiegel newspaper that he has ruled out entering another such coalition.
“Three grand coalitions in a row would not do democracy in Germany any good,” he said.
However, “the options facing the SPD are unappealing” says Reuters. “Early elections would probably decimate a party now running third in the polls behind the surging Greens” says the news agency, while “the SPD is struggling to appeal to its traditional working-class base while its leaders share power with Merkel”.
“The party is rudderless and deeply wounded,” said Josef Joffe, publisher-editor of the weekly Die Zeit. “In these straits, wild dreams have wings, and so the clamour for rebirth in opposition may end its unhappy marriage with Merkel.”
“The problem is new elections are unlikely to help” says BBC Berlin Correspondent Damien McGuinness. With the party already polling at record lows, “there is no leader-apparent ready to take over” he writes “and the party's message on many big issues, from climate change to migration, remains unclear”.
If the SPD decides to pull out of the ruling alliance, it could spell the end of Angela Merkel’s government.
Other options include an even more unwieldy coalition of three-party groups, or a minority conservative government propped up on an ad hoc basis.
Deutsche Welle says “initial signals from the CDU suggest the conservatives are determined to keep the coalition together”.
Both Merkel and her successor as party leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, acknowledged Nahles' resignation with great respect while vowing to carry on, “but voices lower down the CDU hierarchy suggest that some in the party feel the time for a new start has arrived”, says DW.
Deputy parliamentary leader Carsten Linnemann told the Funke Media Group that the coalition was at a crossroads and either this “unloved constellation” makes important political progress, or it faces collapse.
“The SPD and the CDU/CSU are still in a grand coalition dilemma,” he said. “We won’t be able to govern and at the same time remain distinguishable for voters on core issues”.
When asked whether SPD’s political struggles had weakened the position of Merkel going forwards, Olaf Boehnke, senior advisor at Rasmussen Global, replied: “Definitely.”
“I see Angela Merkel and the SPD as companions in fate. It was always clear that if one of the two actually were to lose this battle then the other is gone as well,” he told CNBC.
“The future of the coalition now depends on the decision as to who succeeds Nahles,” says The Guardian.
“Anyone more to the left of the party might consider collaboration with the CDU unworkable and could push for a departure from the coalition. While a minority government might be tolerated, it is more likely that such a decision would trigger new elections, and probably lead to the premature end of what Merkel has declared is her final chancellorship,” says the paper.
