Age is a bigger determining factor than sexual orientation in how Americans will vote in the 2020 presidential election, according to a new poll that could impact which Democratic candidate is eventually chosen to face off against Donald Trump.
The Reuters/Ipsos nationwide opinion survey, conducted ahead of the 50th anniversary of the Stonewall riots and the birth of the LGBT rights movement, found Americans are more likely to say they would reject a candidate older than 70 than a candidate who is gay.
“In a sign that a presidential hopeful’s sexual orientation has diminished as a concern for voters,” Reuters says the findings “highlighted a steady trend towards acceptance of gay politicians”.
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In 2007, Americans were still more likely to want a septuagenarian in the White House than a gay or lesbian president. Fast forward to today and 48% of adults in the US said they were “much” or “somewhat” less likely to support someone for the White House if the person was older than 70, while 34% were less likely to vote for someone who is gay.
NBC News says the survey “called attention to one of the challenges facing President Donald Trump, who will be turning 73 next week, as he seeks re-election in 2020”.
It has also thrown up the stark choice facing Democratic voters who will select the person they believe is best suited to beating the incumbent next November.
The two frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, former vice president Joe Biden and left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders, are both in their mid-70s.
By contrast, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who has been the big surprise of the race so far and is currently polling third in some early primary states, is just 38. He is also the first openly gay presidential candidate who has a shot at the White House.
A decade ago “it was controversial just to see a presidential candidate who’s supportive of gay rights,” said Andrew Flores, a government professor at American University in Washington DC “Now there’s a gay candidate who’s actually running for the office. So there has been a vast change in what the country views as acceptable.”
Age looks set to be one of the defining features of the 2020 presidential race.
“This is most immediately evident in the way Democrats are sorting themselves in their early primary preferences,” says David Brooks in the New York Times.
Pointing to one early New Hampshire poll, in which Biden won 39% of the vote of those over 55, but just 22% of those under 35, the paper says “a Democratic voter’s race, sex or education level doesn’t predict which candidate he or she is leaning toward, but age does”.
Ronald Brownstein in The Atlantic writes that older Democrats prefer a more moderate candidate who they think can win, while younger Democrats prefer a more progressive candidate who they think can bring systemic change.
“Biden’s most obvious weakness in the crowded contest is that his centrist instincts and policy record, particularly during his 36-year-long Senate career” Brownstein writes. “His greatest strength is his appeal to older Democratic voters, both white and African American, who are typically more ideologically moderate and more politically pragmatic”.
For the 76-year-old, that’s an acceptable trade-off because voters older than 45 cast fully 60% of all votes in the 2016 Democratic primary, according to a cumulative CNN analysis of exit polls that year.
“The generation gap is even more powerful when it comes to Republicans,” writes Brooks. “To put it bluntly, young adults hate them” and with a 2018 Pew survey finding 59% of millennials identifying as Democrats “it’s hard to look at the generational data and not see long-term disaster for Republicans,” he concludes.
