Boris Johnson’s proposals for a post-Brexit Irish border have been met with a cool – rather than icy – reaction in Brussels.
The prime minister has outlined plans that would see Northern Ireland stay in the European single market for goods but leave the customs union, resulting in new customs checks.
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, welcomed what he called “positive advances” but added that there were “problematic points”, including how the arrangements would be monitored.
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The sentiments echoed the words of the BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler, who wrote: “I have spoken to a number of EU diplomats tonight who say some of the proposals were better than expected. But they emphasised very big differences remain between the two sides.”
The Guardian gave a less upbeat take, reporting that “despite concerted attempts to avoid publicly trashing the UK proposals, there was dismay behind the scenes in Brussels”.
Indeed, the Brexit steering group’s coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, said: “The reaction of the Brexit steering group was not positive. Not positive in that we don’t think really there are the safeguards that Ireland needs.”
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It is widely believed that the response of Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, will be the biggest influence on how the EU responds. He said that Johnson’s proposals did not “fully meet the agreed objectives” of the original guarantee against a hard border on the island of Ireland. However, he did not reject them entirely and stated that he would study the proposals “in further detail”.
The response in Europe leaves the chances of a deal being agreed by 31 October on the table – albeit only just.
What about closer to home?
Arlene Foster, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland, gave Johnson’s deal the thumbs-up, describing it as “sensible and balanced” after her party shifted its red lines over regulatory alignment.
The DUP’s stance helps change the parliamentary arithmetic in Johnson’s favour should the deal go to a vote in the Commons. His mathematics were also given a boost when Steve Baker, chairman of the hardline Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG), called the plan “fantastic”.
However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said of the PM’s plan: “It’s worse than May’s deal. I can’t see it getting the support that he thinks it will get. It will also undermine the Good Friday agreement.”
Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon took to Twitter to say it was: “Hard to see how the UK government Brexit ‘proposals’ fly. And hard to escape conclusion that they’re designed to fail.”
Verhofstadt also suggested it was not a serious attempt at reaching a deal but an effort to shift blame onto Brussels to pursue a no-deal Brexit.
But another diplomatic source from Brussels predicted that failure would mean a delay. “Unfortunately we are heading for an extension,” the source told The Guardian.
Although Johnson has repeatedly said he will not comply with new legislation forcing him to ask for a delay to Brexit if a deal cannot be reached, The Times today reports that the “European Union could grant another Brexit delay even if the letter making a request for an extension beyond October 31 is not signed by the prime minister”.
One Whitehall source told the newspaper that the letter could instead be sent by someone such as Sir Tim Barrow, the UK’s ambassador to the EU.
