Is Britain prepared for a second wave of coronavirus?
Scientists say the government has made serious progress - but more action is needed
Packed parks and beaches and the prospect of an alcohol-fuelled “super Saturday” when pubs reopen next week have sparked predictions of an impending surge in coronavirus infections.
Although reports of new Covid-19 cases currently remain in decline, “health leaders are calling for an urgent review to ensure Britain is properly prepared for the ‘real risk’ of a second wave”, The Telegraph reports.
Second wave - or more of the first?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
While the term is widely used, “the concept of a second wave is flawed”, says Jeremy Rossman, a senior lecturer in virology at Kent University.
“We are not between waves,” he explains in an article first published on The Conversation. “We have new cases in the UK every day. We are in an ebb and flow of Covid-19 transmission that is continually affected by our precautionary actions.”
A true second wave is more likely to come in the winter, says England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty. That’s when respiratory infections spread more easily - and also, unfortunately, when the NHS is under most strain.
“It is entirely plausible for a second wave to actually be more severe than the first if it is not mitigated,” Whitty said last month. “Every country has got an extremely difficult balancing act, and we all need to be honest about the fact there are no easy solutions here.”
However, says Rossman, “we should not fear an inevitable second wave”, but instead act now to prevent or contain it.
Test and trace
In an open letter to ministers published in the British Medical Journal this week, health leaders including the presidents of the royal colleges of surgeons and nursing called for an acceleration of planning to deal with a flare-up of Covid-19 cases.
“Many elements of the infrastructure needed to contain the virus are beginning to be put in place,” the letter said, “but substantial challenges remain.”
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––For a round-up of the most important stories from around the world - and a concise, refreshing and balanced take on the week’s news agenda - try The Week magazine. Start your trial subscription today –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
One such challenge is the contact-tracing app, which last week was shelved until autumn at the earliest.
The UK has implemented other systems for tracking new outbreaks, however.
A manual contact-tracing programme launched on 28 May has succeeded in contacting 113,925 people to warn them that they have come into contact with someone infected with the new coronavirus, according to the Department of Health. This figure represents 89% of a total 128,566 identified as recent close contacts of the 21,105 people who tested positive for Covid-19.
But worryingly, more than one in four people with the virus have not been reached to provide details of their contacts.
Latest figures show that of 6,923 people who tested positive for coronavirus in England last week, the system failed to reach almost 30%. To put that another way, “2,054 people with the virus – and potentially thousands of their close contacts – could not be traced”, says The Independent.
Scientists have described the statistics as “worrying” and said the problem “could only be solved with better cooperation from the public - not by the government”, reports the Daily Mail.
Nevertheless, even an imperfect system will disrupt chains of infection and limit the spread of Covid-19. “Government experts believe with the testing-and-tracing system in place, the virus can continue to be suppressed,” says BBC health correspondent Nick Triggle.
Handwashing and masks
By the time the UK government launched public health campaigns to encourage frequent hand-washing and avoid shaking hands, in late February, the virus was already in widespread circulation. If we now see another rise in infections, better standards of basic hygiene this time around may slow the spread of the virus.
“By keeping the importance of handwashing and cleaning surfaces in mind, we can help prevent the spread of infection as the country opens back up, and hopefully prevent a second wave of infections,” says Dr Rodney Rohde, a virologist and clinical laboratory expert, in an article for Forbes.
Although the scientific debate about masks has yet to reach any definitive conclusions, a growing number of researchers are also advocating their use.
“Wearing masks is a good idea and I don't know why we’re not pushing it more,” Professor Sian Griffiths of Staffordshire University told The Sun. “We need leaders out there wearing masks to encourage the public to do so.”
Face coverings are now mandatory on public transport in England, but Griffiths said people should be wearing them more widely “as part of basic measures to get the virus down”.
Vaccines and treatments
The most effective way to prevent a second wave of coronavirus infections would be to create, distribute and administer a vaccine that works.
A potential vaccine developed by researchers at Oxford University is “considered one of the world’s best hopes for a lasting solution to the Covid-19 pandemic”, says CBS News - but even if trials are successful, the drug is unlikely to go into widespread use before the end of the year.
Until then, doctors will focus on better treatments for Covid-19. Drugs such as remdesivir and dexamethasone will not prevent a second wave of cases, but are expected to reduce the death toll and speed the recovery of people infected with the virus.
Hospital capacity
One of the big fears at the start of the pandemic was that the NHS would be overwhelmed by coronavirus patients, but the Nightingale hospitals - combined with lower-than-expected demand for intensive care beds - kept the health service well within capacity.
The seven emergency facilities, which between them provide more than 10,000 beds, have now been mothballed, but they could be reactivated at short notice.
“Ministers have already said that the temporary Nightingale Hospitals set up in case the NHS was overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases will remain on standby over the coming months,” The Telegraph reports.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––For a round-up of the most important stories from around the world - and a concise, refreshing and balanced take on the week’s news agenda - try The Week magazine. Start your trial subscription today –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
'Epic meltdown'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
The World of Tim Burton: a 'creepy, witty and visually ravishing' exhibition
The Week Recommends Sprawling show at the Design Museum features over 600 exhibits from across the directors' five-decade career from early sketches to costumes and props
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK Published
-
Crossword: October 31, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
IPPs: the prisoners serving never-ending jail sentences
The Explainer Sentences of 'imprisonment for public protection' (IPPs) have been widely condemned, but many are still in force
By The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Bob Woodward's War: the explosive Trump revelations
In the spotlight Nobody can beat Watergate veteran at 'getting the story of the White House from the inside'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Trump kept up with Putin, sent Covid tests, book says
Speed Read The revelation comes courtesy of a new book by Bob Woodward
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'The federal government's response to the latest surge has been tepid at best'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden tests positive for Covid in fresh blow to campaign
Speed Read The president said he would consider dropping out of the race if presented with a "medical condition"
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published