Belarus protests: will Russia intervene to save ‘Europe’s last dictator’?
Minsk approaches Moscow for support amid violent protests over alleged election rigging
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has reportedly appealed to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for support as public unrest continues to grow over alleged election rigging in the former Soviet state.
Protesters have flooded the streets of Minsk and several other cities across Belarus in the wake of the vote on 8 August, which saw Lukashenko (pictured above with Putin) cling to power amid widespread claims of electoral fraud.
Lukashenko claims that Putin has offered him “comprehensive assistance” to ensure his country’s security, but pundits have predicted that the Belarusian leader’s days in office are numbered. Forbes report that the Putin regime “for many years hungrily has eyed Belarus” - so has Lukashenko just handed Moscow a pretext to annex the landlocked former Soviet republic?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What has happened?
The hotly contested election earlier this month saw an improbable 80.1% of the vote go to Lukashenko, who has held power since 1994 and is commonly referred to as Europe’s “last dictator”.
His main rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, garnered just 10.12% despite optimistic forecasts for the former school teacher. By contrast, Lukashenko’s support appeared to be waning following his bumbled response to the coronavirus crisis and a stagnant economy.
The controversial vote result has triggered mass protests across the country, with a rally in capital Minsk yesterday attracting around 200,000 people, Reuters reports.
CNBC adds that some of the protesters waved the red and white flag used by Belarus prior to Lukashenko’s ascension to power, and chanted “Lukashenko step down” and “we won’t forget or forgive”.
The protests have been met with brutal force by the authorities, with at least two demonstrators reported to have been killed and thousands more detained.
How will Russia respond?
Russia and Belarus have maintained close formal ties since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, forming the two-party “Union State” supranational organisation in 1999.
Appealing to Russia to help quell the protests, Lukashenko has warned that the impact of the unrest might spill beyond Belarus’s borders, The Guardian says.
“There is a need to contact Putin so that I can talk to him now, because it is not a threat to just Belarus any more,” Lukashenko said on Saturday, according to state news agency Belta. “Defending Belarus today is no less than defending our entire space, the Union State... those who roam the streets, most of them do not understand this.”
Addressing supporters in Minsk on Sunday, the president claimed that “Nato troops are at our gates”.
“Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and our native Ukraine are ordering us to hold new elections,” he continued, adding that Belarus would “die as a state” if new polls were held.
His appeal for Russian aid comes just weeks after Lukashenko put significant strain on Moscow-Minsk relations by claiming that the Kremlin was sending mercenaries to Belarus to overthrow the government.
What would Russian intervention look like?
It is unclear exactly what Lukashenko wants from Putin, but some commentators have raised concerns that Belarus may have given Russia the “green light to intervene”, Forbes says.
In his statement on Saturday, Lukashenko claimed that Russia had “agreed that at the first request there will be comprehensive assistance provided to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus”.
But according to the Institute for the Study of War, Belarusian state media “edited its reporting on Lukashenko’s statement at 9:45pm local time to insert the comment that Lukashenko would only invite Russian forces ‘in the event of external military threats’”.
Meanwhile, The Moscow Times argues that “Putin doesn’t want to intervene in the situation in Belarus”.
The Kremlin has been “careful about overtly backing Lukashenko in word or deed”, says the newspaper, which notes that Russian media has “reported openly on police abuses” in Belarus, while “prominent statesmen publicly called on Russia to abandon Lukashenko”.
“This is a far cry from the rhetoric and action that preceded Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine” in 2014, when Russian officials and pundits called protesters “anti-Russian fascists” and their new government a “junta”.
Nevertheless, adds Reuters, Russia is likely to be “watching closely” as the ongoing protests continue, because “Belarus hosts pipelines that carry Russian energy exports to the West and is viewed by Moscow as a buffer zone against Nato”.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Is ChatGPT's new search engine OpenAI's Google 'killer'?
Talking Point There's a new AI-backed search engine in town. But can it stand up to Google's decades-long hold on internet searches?
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Crossword: November 5, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Sudoku hard: November 5, 2024
The Week's daily hard sudoku puzzle
By The Week Staff Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Elon Musk is in regular contact with Putin, WSJ says
Speed Read The Tesla founder has been increasingly involved in Donald Trump's presidential campaign
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Yulia Navalnaya: the new face of Russia's opposition
In the Spotlight Widow of opposition leader Alexei Navalny vows to return home and run for president 'once Putin is gone'
By The Week UK Last updated
-
Is Putin's anti-Western alliance winning?
Today's Big Question Brics summit touted by Russia as triumph against US-led world order, but key faultlines in alliance are growing
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Bob Woodward's War: the explosive Trump revelations
In the spotlight Nobody can beat Watergate veteran at 'getting the story of the White House from the inside'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Trump kept up with Putin, sent Covid tests, book says
Speed Read The revelation comes courtesy of a new book by Bob Woodward
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Has Russia's nuclear saber-rattling lost its edge?
Today's Big Question Kremlin worries repeated nuke threats have lost their potency
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published