Fact Check: Should Ireland be next to leave the EU?
Think tank says Ireland would be better off following the UK out – but does it ignore some important facts?
Ireland has prospered since it joined the EU in 1973, but with Brexit dominating the headlines some are calling for the country to follow the UK out of the union.
"Until very recently, the very notion of Ireland leaving the EU was so outlandish and marginal that it did not feature in any public discourse in a meaningful way," the Irish Times reported in November.
But a study released in July from an influential right-leaning UK think tank says Ireland should "seriously consider" pulling out of the bloc because it benefits more from closer ties to London than Brussels.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Analysts have taken issue with some of the arguments made in the report, however. What are the facts?
What did the report find?
The Policy Exchange report says there is "really no upside to Brexit" for Ireland: "Whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, there will be a price to pay.”
The report was written by Ray Bassett, a former Irish ambassador involved in Northern Ireland peace talks who served as joint secretary of the British-Irish secretariat in Belfast.
He argues that in the event of a hard Brexit, Ireland's interests would be "better served" by opting out of formal membership of the EU, remaining in a customs union with the UK and negotiating free trade arrangements - like Norway has - with the remaining members.
Maintaining close ties with the UK is crucial as Britain is still "by far" Ireland's main trading partner, accounting for nearly 30 per cent of the country's merchandised imports, he says.
Bassett says Ireland has greatly benefitted from EU membership but questions the direction the bloc is taking and whether the Irish population wants to be a part of it.
"The organisation that Ireland joined, and where it once thrived, is disappearing," he argues.
The majority of Irish people think the nation's relationship with the UK is more important than its ties with the EU, Bassett claims, and Euroscepticism is on the rise. "There are growing complaints about Brussels interference and a feeling that EU membership is now actually a limiting factor," the report argues.
Any new deal "would not be as advantageous as full membership" of the EU, Bassett admits. "However, the aim would be to get as close as possible to full and free access to the single market."
In addition to the trade implications, Ireland would also likely have to pay the EU an exit fee, which in the case of the UK has been estimated as high as £100bn with the final figure still being negotiated.
While Bassett doesn't make a financial argument for Irexit in his study, he notes that the European Commission has discussed the introduction of a common consolidated corporation tax base (CCCTB), which Ireland would likely resist given its position as a low-tax jurisdiction with a 12.5 per cent rate of corporate tax.
"There are varying estimates of the cost to Ireland of a CCCTB, with the EU claiming that it would only reduce revenue to Ireland by 0.2%, while the Irish Business and Employers Confederation believe, more realistically, that the cost would be around 7.7% of total tax revenue or €3.9bn," says Bassett.
What was the response?
Bassett's arguments are "not just flawed but factually incorrect," tweeted John Walsh, deputy editor and business editor at the Ireland edition of The Times.
"Perfectly fine discussing Irexit if all the facts are on the table, not just selective [and] misleading ones," he added. "That is how Brexit happened."
John O'Brennan, professor of European politics at the National University of Ireland, Maynooth, agrees that the data presented on Ireland-UK trade does not provide the full picture as it fails to recognise that Ireland used EU membership to reduce trade dependency on UK.
Debating whether to leave the EU is healthy and Ireland should carefully weigh up its options, says Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin.
However, the wider economic case for Irexit is "non-existent," he argues in the Irish Independent.
"Contrary to frequent comment, the UK is not Ireland's biggest trading partner. It is now in third place, accounting for only 15 percent of two-way trade in goods and services," says O'Brien.
"The other 26 members of the EU account for more than twice as much," he says, citing official figures from Ireland's Central Statistics Office.
O'Brien also warns that it would take years for an Ireland-UK trade deal to be negotiated. During that time the country "would languish in a worst-of-both-worlds limbo, out of the EU and with no new Ireland-UK arrangement," he says.
What does the public think?
The vast majority of people in Ireland are opposed to an exit from the union, according to a poll commissioned by the European Movement Ireland, an NGO that works to develop links between Ireland and the EU. Of those questioned, 88 per cent said the country should remain in the bloc.
Infographic by www.statista.com for TheWeek.co.uk
Bassett's suggestion that the public is growing increasingly sceptical about the EU "has been wholly disproved by multiple surveys, year in year out," says Professor O'Brennan.
Support for the EU has always been high in Ireland and has increased steadily since the Brexit vote.
A survey conducted in December 2016 found that 80 per cent of Irish citizens would vote to remain in the EU, a two per cent increase from the previous year.
"It makes Ireland one of the most pro-EU countries on the continent, along with Spain," the Irish Independent reported at the time.
What do Irish politicians think?
The government continues to make it clear that Ireland's membership of the EU is not in doubt, the Financial Times says.
There is no Irish equivalent of Ukip, the driving force behind the UK campaign to leave the EU, it added. "But there are some voices on the libertarian right who advocate such a course."
Who is right?
There currently appears to be little public or political appetite for an Irish exit from the union, despite Bassett's claims. While the UK is clearly an important trading partner for Ireland, the evidence suggests that Dublin has far more to lose from severing ties with Brussels.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
5 online spice shops that will breathe life into your cooking and baking
The Week Recommends Accessing fresh spices does not have to be a grind
By Scott Hocker, The Week US Published
-
'Empowered' Steve Bannon released from prison
Speed Read Bannon was set free a week before Election Day and quickly returned to his right-wing podcast to promote Trump
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Who will be the next James Bond?
In the Spotlight Despite previous rumours of an offer being made, a replacement for Daniel Craig seems far from confirmed
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
IPPs: the prisoners serving never-ending jail sentences
The Explainer Sentences of 'imprisonment for public protection' (IPPs) have been widely condemned, but many are still in force
By The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The Tamils stranded on 'secretive' British island in Indian Ocean
Under the Radar Migrants 'unlawfully detained' since 2021 shipwreck on UK-controlled Diego Garcia, site of important US military base
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's Labour Party wins in a landslide
Speed Read The Conservatives were unseated after 14 years of rule
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Will voter apathy and low turnout blight the election?
Today's Big Question Belief that result is 'foregone conclusion', or that politicians can't be trusted, could exacerbate long-term turnout decline
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published