Brexit vote one year on: The winners and losers
Steep fall in the pound and a general sense of uncertainty have driven business trends
Today is the first anniversary of the vote for Brexit - the day former Ukip leader Nigel Farage named: "Independence day."
But the UK has not left EU yet. In fact, it only began the formal process of negotiating its departure this week.
That doesn't mean businesses and the economy are not showing the profound effects of the referendum result: indeed, there is a stark divide in how people and companies have fared in the past 12 months.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Broker Hargreaves Lansdown said the most notable driving force is the 15 per cent slump in the pound since the Brexit result, says The Guardian.
Added to that is the general sense of uncertainty over what the future holds, which has begun to filter down into noticeable economic trends.
So, who are the Brexit winners and losers so far?
Winners
Those who have done well out in the past 12 months are those in a position to benefit directly or indirectly from the slump in the pound.
Britain's tourism sector is one example, with record numbers of visitors coming to the UK earlier this year, says the Guardian. With the pound worth less, flights, hotels and spending money is cheaper for overseas tourists.
More Brits are also likely to be staying at home for their holiday, as the cost of travelling and spending time abroad has conversely risen.
Manufacturers have had a "double benefit", Martin Beck of Oxford Economics told the BBC. Exports orders are up due to costs for overseas buyers falling, while trade with the single market, the UK's main export market, remains tariff-free.
Britain's manufacturing order book is stronger than at any time since 1988, City AM reports.
Then there are firms which are listed on the UK stock market and so report earnings in pounds, but make the majority of their money overseas. Their businesses have been unaffected, but reported earnings have been inflated.
Hargreaves Lansdown says the biggest gainers on the UK benchmark index in the past year all conform to this model, comprising miners Glencore and Antofagasta, drinks firm Coca-Cola, investor group 3i and global hotels giant Intercontinental.
Investors in the FTSE 100 have therefore benefitted from its 23 per cent advance overall in the past year.
However, much of this effect has been due to the pound's fall and for dollar investors, the FTSE 100 is barely changed from its level on 23 June 2016.
Losers
Sterling's decline also has ill-effects.
Holidaymakers who have already booked a foreign trip or who don't have the option of changing to a "staycation", because they have family overseas, for example, will find their visits have become much more expensive.
This has a knock-on effect for the likes of easyjet and Ryanair, which have reported profits falling this year, including because of the negative currency effect, says the Daily Telegraph.
Then there are the UK-based businesses which are having to import goods at a greater expense since the pound's fall and rely on UK consumer spending, which is being affected by that same inflationary effect.
This has hit companies such as Dixons Carphone, which owns Carphone Warehouse and Currys PC World. Its share price has fallen 30 per cent in the past year, costing it a place in the FTSE 100 of the UK's most valuable listed companies.
Clothing retailer Next has also taken a hefty blow, as has Premier Foods, the maker of Mr Kipling cakes, which has struggled with a major rise in input costs.
That inflationary surge - consumer price rises are now running at an annual rate of close to three per cent - is also hurting household income more widely. Wage growth is slowing amid economic uncertainty and real wages after inflation are in decline.
The ripple-effect of that uncertainty is perhaps most notable in the property market, where Brexit has exacerbated a decline in transactions and house price growth has eased significantly.
Housebuilders initially led the Brexit-related market losses but have recovered more recently. However, estate agents dependent on activity levels remaining high have not enjoyed a similar bounce back, with London-focused Foxtons down 43 per cent.
What is the net effect?
Economically speaking, the results of the Brexit vote has been a mixed bag but overall, the UK has defied some of the gloomier forecasts.
However, economic growth is slowing and economists are almost unanimously predicting that expansion will be slower than it would otherwise have been in the years ahead - and could be so for decades to come.
Investors who picked the winners will have done well from the upheaval on markets and as markets are generally higher, even passive investors will have gained.
Nevertheless, on average, most British workers are experiencing a fall in real wages which will hit the poorest most.
In that respect and given the weakened economic prospects for the near future, by most measures it is hard to see the last year as anything but a net loss.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Big Tech critic Brendan Carr is Trump's FCC pick
In the Spotlight The next FCC commissioner wants to end content moderation practices on social media sites
By David Faris Published
-
ATACMS, the long-range American missiles being fired by Ukraine
The Explainer President Joe Biden has authorized their use for the first time in the war
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
The bacterial consequences of hurricanes
Under the radar Floodwaters are microbial hotbeds
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
John Prescott: was he Labour's last link to the working class?
Today's Big Quesiton 'A total one-off': tributes have poured in for the former deputy PM and trade unionist
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Last hopes for justice for UK's nuclear test veterans
Under the Radar Thousands of ex-service personnel say their lives have been blighted by aggressive cancers and genetic mutations
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will Donald Trump wreck the Brexit deal?
Today's Big Question President-elect's victory could help UK's reset with the EU, but a free-trade agreement with the US to dodge his threatened tariffs could hinder it
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published