Europe jittery as crunch vote looms for German coalition

European leaders will be focused on Germany this weekend as the party’s Social Democrats (SPD) vote on a “grand coalition” agreement with Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc.

The 600 SPD delegates will decide on Sunday whether to approve plans by party leaders to start formal coalition talks with the chancellor’s bloc - and will “also be deciding whether Germany heads back to stability or lurches toward a repeat election that risks being as inconclusive as last year’s”, says Bloomberg.

Members of the SPD base have voiced strong opposition to the prospect of another so-called grand coalition between the country’s two biggest political parties.

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Many see the 28-page coalition blueprint, hammered out during preliminary talks between the SPD and Merkel’s conservative bloc, “as proof that the SPD would be giving everything for a grand coalition and receiving little in return”, says Politico’s Emily Schultheis.

The SPD “did not get the tax rise on high earners or a reform of health insurance it wanted”, says The Times. But party leaders insist they hammered out “a good blueprint with the conservatives, including plans to boost pensions and phase out a solidarity tax imposed to help poorer eastern states”.

Many delegates also fear that reprising the party’s role as Merkel’s junior partner could do further damage to the SPD’s election prospects.

The party got 20.5% of the vote in September’s general election - its lower vote share since 1949 - after serving in the chancellor’s last government.

Speaking to Politico, SPD member Ulrich Piechota said: “If we go into another grand coalition, what happens in four years? Will we stand here then with 15, 16, 17, 18 per cent? With the same situation, we’ll keep disappearing.”

If opponents of another grand coalition with Merkel prevail, “Germany - and by extension Europe - faces a bout of political instability with no clear outcome”, according to Bloomberg.

France, in particular, cannot become more significant on the European stage without Germany’s help, says Judy Dempsey, of foreign policy analysis platform Carnegie Europe.

Speaking to the BBC, Dempsey points to French President Emmanuel Macron’s speech at Paris-Sorbonne University in September, when he called for more EU integration in the eurozone, and in defence, migration and other areas.

“He also very clearly says to Germany: I can’t do this without you,” says Dempsey.

Without a government, Germany can only tread political water. And the longer the process of German coalition building goes on, the twitchier Macron and other European leaders become.

“Time isn’t a luxury,” Dempsey notes.

“If Merkel doesn’t manage now to get the Social Democrats behind her and have a grand coalition, I think her days will also be counted and she will probably not serve the full four years,” says Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, a Brussels-based research group, in quotes reported by Bloomberg.

Even if the SPD does vote in favour of starting coalition talks, a new government is far from guaranteed. The negotiations could begin as early as next week but would probably take weeks to complete.

And if the two sides do agree on a coalition, the SPD then have to put that deal to a vote open to its entire party membership.