Can pregnancy rates predict a recession?
Analysis shows number of women falling pregnant drops several months before the start of an economic downturn
Pregnancy rates could be used to predict an imminent economic recession, new research from US academics has suggested.
The authors of Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator? tracked more than 100 million births in the US between 1989 and 2016 and found that the rate of conceptions began to fall several months before an economic downturn.
The BBC says “economists are frequently criticised for failing to accurately predict the direction of economic growth [and] increasingly they are looking beyond traditional measures such as manufacturing output, retail spending and house prices to help build a more complex and accurate picture”.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
It has long been accepted that birth rates decline as a result of falling consumer confidence in the middle of a recession, but now it appears that pregnancy rates could be used to predict future economic productivity before it starts to decline.
There also appears to be a link between the rate of fertility decline and the scale of the subsequent downturn, and the report’s authors say it is more accurate than many traditional indicators.
Summarising their findings, Daniel Hungerman, Kasey Buckles and Steven Lugauer suggested proxy data like the sale of fertility and pregnancy related goods should be monitored for signs of an impending economic downturn.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Quincy Jones, music icon, is dead at 91
Speed Read The legendary producer is perhaps best known as the architect behind Michael Jackson's 'Thriller'
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Moldova's pro-West president wins 2nd term
Speed Read Maia Sandu beat Alexandr Stoianoglo, despite suspicions of Russia meddling in the election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
2024 race ends with swing state barnstorming
Speed Read Kamala Harris and Donald Trump held rallies in battlegrounds over the weekend
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'Brain drain' fear as record numbers leave New Zealand
Under The Radar Neighbouring Australia is luring young workers with prospect of better jobs
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Are we getting a 'hard landing' after all?
Today's Big Question Signs of economic slowdown raise concerns 'soft landing' declarations were premature
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
How the world economy learned to live with the drama
Under the Radar As economists predict a 'soft landing' after recent crises, is the global economy now 'oblivious to the new world disorder'?
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published
-
Could Fed interest rate cuts tip the election?
Talking Points The central bank could make interest rate cuts during a campaign focused on the economy
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
How long can consumers keep the economy humming?
Talking Points Consumers boosted growth, defying recession warnings. The question is whether 2024 will be different.
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
How did America avoid a recession in 2023?
Today's Big Question A downturn was inevitable. Until it wasn't.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Will the UK economy bounce back in 2024?
Today's Big Question Fears of recession follow warning that the West is 'sleepwalking into economic catastrophe'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Inflation vs. deflation: which is worse for national economies?
Today's Big Question Lower prices may be good news for households but prolonged deflation is ‘terrible for the economy’
By The Week Staff Published