Can Labour hang on to Hartlepool in by-election battle?
Tories ‘gagging for a fight’ following resignation of northern constituency’s scandal-hit Labour MP
The stakes were already high for Keir Starmer in May’s local elections, but now the resignation of Hartlepool’s Labour MP has pushed them higher still.
Mike Hill, who has represented the northern seat since 2017, announced yesterday that he was stepping down with immediate effect, ahead of a tribunal into allegations against him of sexual harassment - claims that he denies.
His resignation piles pressure on Labour as the party prepares for what Politico London Playbook’s Alex Wickham describes as “one of the most interesting by-elections in years” - one that will challenge “the received Westminster wisdom on various narratives from Brexit and the blue wall”.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Labour is reportedly pushing for the Hartlepool vote to take place on 6 May, the same day as the other local elections, in a move that makes it “double or quits” for Starmer, Wickham writes.
Hill leaves behind a relatively thin majority of 3,595, setting the scene for a polls battle that will test Starmer’s strategy for rebuilding Labour’s heartlands, while measuring whether the Tories are still popular among the northern voters who turned blue in 2019.
If the Hartlepool by-election “were held tomorrow”, Labour would almost certainly hold on to the seat, says the New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush.
But “the election is not being held tomorrow, and what we don’t know is whether the increase in the government’s fortunes has yet reached its peak”, he continues. That said, “you’d expect a Labour hold” as opposed to “a Conservative triumph” in a seat that has never voted Tory.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
HuffPost executive editor Paul Waugh is more confident that Starmer’s party will prevail, arguing that “with the right candidate, Labour should be increasing its majority in Hartlepool, not hanging on for dear life”.
However, a Labour insider told Waugh that “if you could pick one seat we didn’t want a by-election in, it is Hartlepool”, adding: “It’s a nightmare.”
The Brexit Party’s Richard Tice got 10,603 votes in Hartlepool in the 2019 election, suggesting that should the newly-rebranded Reform Party stand a candidate, both Labour and the Tories could lose valuable support. And as the New Statesman’s Bush notes, “independent candidates have a long history of success in local elections”.
The loyalties of Hartlepool voters have proved particularly hard to predict. In 2002, the constituency famously elected a candidate running under the guise of H’Angus the Monkey, the town’s football club’s mascot, who was then re-elected in 2005 and 2009.
As voters nationwide gear up to head to the polls once again in May, a northern Conservative MP told Politico’s Playbook that the Hartlepool seat is very much “in play”. The Tories are “gagging for a fight” and will “campaign very hard” with “high profile” from senior party figures, the unnamed MP added.
Labour are also certain to come out swinging though. “If Labour smashed the council elections and saw off the challenge in Hartlepool then pressure on Starmer’s leadership would ease,” writes Playbook’s Wickham.
“But if either goes wrong for the opposition then that scrutiny will increase tenfold.”
Joe Evans is the world news editor at TheWeek.co.uk. He joined the team in 2019 and held roles including deputy news editor and acting news editor before moving into his current position in early 2021. He is a regular panellist on The Week Unwrapped podcast, discussing politics and foreign affairs.
Before joining The Week, he worked as a freelance journalist covering the UK and Ireland for German newspapers and magazines. A series of features on Brexit and the Irish border got him nominated for the Hostwriter Prize in 2019. Prior to settling down in London, he lived and worked in Cambodia, where he ran communications for a non-governmental organisation and worked as a journalist covering Southeast Asia. He has a master’s degree in journalism from City, University of London, and before that studied English Literature at the University of Manchester.
-
5 seriously spooky cartoons about HalloweenCartoons Artists take on the GOP boogeyman, a white sheet, and more
-
Political cartoons for October 25Cartoons Saturday’s political cartoons include hospital bill trauma, Independence Day, and more
-
Roasted squash and apple soup recipeThe Week Recommends Autumnal soup is full of warming and hearty flavours
-
Five takeaways from Plaid Cymru’s historic Caerphilly by-election winThe Explainer The ‘big beasts’ were ‘humbled’ but there was disappointment for second-placed Reform too
-
Can Trump deliver a farmer bailout in time?Today's Big Question Planting decisions and food prices hang in the balance
-
Could US Tomahawk missiles help Ukraine end the war?Today's Big Question Or is Trump bluffing?
-
The Chinese threat: No. 10’s evidence leads to more questionsTalking Point Keir Starmer is under pressure after collapsed spying trial
-
Do Republicans have a health care plan?Today's Big Question The shutdown hinges on the answer
-
The new age of book banningThe Explainer How America’s culture wars collided with parents and legislators who want to keep their kids away from ‘dangerous’ ideas
-
Taking the low road: why the SNP is still standing strongTalking Point Party is on track for a fifth consecutive victory in May’s Holyrood election, despite controversies and plummeting support
-
Could Democrats lose the New Jersey governor’s race?Today’s Big Question Democrat Mikie Sherrill stumbles against Republican Jack Ciattarelli