Global pandemic could wipe out 900 million people
Virus simulation shows governments and health bodies are insufficiently prepared for flu-like breakout

Governments and international health bodies are wholly unprepared for a global flu pandemic that could wipe out almost a billion people, scientists have warned.
Virus simulations conducted at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore found the spread of a new pathogen could kill up to 900 million in a matter of years if it started to spread tomorrow.
Researchers concluded that a made-up illness, a new type of parainfluenza known as Clade X, which was spread by coughing would kill 150 million people – almost three times the UK population – in less than two years in the fictional situation.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The simulation was designed so the pathogen wasn’t markedly more dangerous than real illnesses such as Sars – “and illustrates the tightrope governments tread in responding to such illnesses”, says Metro.
The simulation predicted how governments and health authorities around the world would react to a deadly infection spreading so quickly. Real health professionals took part in the experiment, including US politicians Tom Daschle and Susan Brooks, and former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Julie Gerberding.
However, they were not able to prevent the disease from spreading and killing millions of people, “making experts worried the world is not prepared for a deadly pandemic”, reports the Daily Mail.
Twenty months after the start of the simulated outbreak, 150 million people had died and no vaccine had been developed. Researchers said the pandemic would have ended with up to 900 million dead, nearly 10% of the world’s population.
Speaking to Business Insider, Dr Eric Toner of the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health Security, said the research highlighted many of the shortcomings in our global healthcare system.
“We don’t have the ability to produce vaccines to a novel pathogen within months rather than decades and we don’t have the global public health capabilities that would allow us to rapidly identify and control an outbreak before it becomes a pandemic,” he said.
Healthcare systems around the world would struggle to treat huge numbers of people and potentially fail, he said, adding that it was “lucky” the Sars virus, which killed 10% of the 8,000 people it infected 2003, had not been more severe.
“It will happen,” he warned, “but I don’t know when.”
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Inside the Israel-Turkey geopolitical dance across Syria
THE EXPLAINER As Syria struggles in the wake of the Assad regime's collapse, its neighbors are carefully coordinating to avoid potential military confrontations
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weapons
The Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
By Abby Wilson
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray
In the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Ukrainian election: who could replace Zelenskyy?
The Explainer Donald Trump's 'dictator' jibe raises pressure on Ukraine to the polls while the country is under martial law
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK
-
Why Serbian protesters set off smoke bombs in parliament
THE EXPLAINER Ongoing anti-corruption protests erupted into full view this week as Serbian protesters threw the country's legislature into chaos
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Who is the Hat Man? 'Shadow people' and sleep paralysis
In Depth 'Sleep demons' have plagued our dreams throughout the centuries, but the explanation could be medical
By The Week Staff
-
Why Assad fell so fast
The Explainer The newly liberated Syria is in an incredibly precarious position, but it's too soon to succumb to defeatist gloom
By The Week UK
-
Romania's election rerun
The Explainer Shock result of presidential election has been annulled following allegations of Russian interference
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK