Cabinet split over second referendum

Theresa May’s cabinet is reportedly split over whether to hold a second Brexit referendum if her withdrawal agreement gets voted down by MPs tomorrow.

According to The Observer, senior ministers are divided over whether the prime minister should back a public vote in a final attempt to end the political deadlock over Brexit.

“Adding to a mounting sense of constitutional crisis ahead of Tuesday’s crucial parliamentary vote, No 10 is braced for more resignations of ministers and aides who want another referendum, or who believe May’s deal fails to deliver on Brexit,” says the paper.

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Most estimates suggest Theresa May is heading for a humiliating defeat by MPs, with some predicting she could lose by more than 100 votes.

In an interview with the Mail on Sunday, May said Britain “would truly be in uncharted waters” if the deal is voted down, and issued a stark warning to Conservative rebels that doing so could lead directly to Jeremy Corbyn taking over in Number 10.

Government whips gave Conservative MPs until lunchtime on Sunday to set out how they will vote on May’s Brexit deal, “in a desperate bid to judge the scale of a rebellion that threatens to bring down her government” says the Sunday Telegraph.

It appears the delaying tactic has not worked, with two members of the Government resigning over the weekend and Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, mulling whether to quit over Brexit.

The Sunday Times reports that May will try one last throw of the dice to gain concessions from Brussels in the hope of convincing rebel Tories to fall in line behind her.

Evoking Margaret Thatcher’s tough negotiating line with Europe, the paper says “ministers and aides have convinced the prime minister that she needs “a handbag moment” with EU bosses if she is to have any chance of persuading her own MPs to support her”.

This could see her rush to Brussel today, although rumours the vote could be postponed were dismissed by the new Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show.

But The Sunday Times also reveals that even as she makes a final appeal to the EU, some of her most trusted ministers are already planning for a new referendum.

May’s de facto deputy David Lidington has held talks with Labour MPs to assess whether there is a majority for a second vote in the Commons.

Civil servants have also been war-gaming two scenarios for a ballot: one which would feature a choice between May’s deal and remaining in the EU, and a second which would see people asked to choose between Leave and Remain, and in the event of Leave whether they would prefer the prime minister’s deal or crashing out with no deal.

Supporters of a so-called People’s Vote were given a timely boost by the latest poll from The Independent which shows a majority of the country now think Britain should remain inside the European Union.

The data from pollsters BMG Research reveals support for remaining has grown month by month since the summer, and broke past 50% in December as the complex realities of Brexit were brought home to the country.

The poll also revealed that almost half of people think the withdrawal agreement settled by Theresa May is a “bad deal” for Britain, with around as many saying MPs should reject the deal outright when they take the critical decision tomorrow.

Jon Trickett, a close ally to Jeremy Corbyn, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge that the party stood ready to lead a minority government as soon as “Wednesday morning.”

“That scenario seems unlikely,” says Politico’s Charlie Cooper, “with Tory rebels and the Democratic Unionist Party likely to continue backing May even if she loses the vote”.

Nevertheless, the Telegraph says her leadership rivals “are preparing to move quickly if she resigns next week, with Boris Johnson described as “focused” by friends and Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt plotting to run on a joint ticket”.