Why Republicans could win a shutdown battle with President Obama

Last October, Republicans embarked on a fool's errand to stop ObamaCare with a government shutdown. They ended up sending their party's approval rating into a seeming death spiral.

Yet the GOP soon rebounded, helped along by the health care law's poor rollout. This month, Republicans pummeled Democrats in the midterms en route to their largest congressional majority since World War II.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), soon to be majority leader, has vowed that there will be no more government shutdowns. But with President Obama planning to move ahead unilaterally on immigration reform, Washington is again abuzz with chatter about another round of brinksmanship. And unlike last time, a shutdown could be a winning battle for the GOP.

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To be sure, Republicans damaged their party brand with the 2013 shutdown. But Democrats suffered, too, as did Obama. Republicans came out looking the worst, but that was because by being in the minority they were seen — correctly — as the obstinate party preventing Washington from passing a spending bill.

Next year though, Republicans will control both houses of Congress. Should they opt for a shutdown redux by forcing Democratic vetoes or filibusters, they can turn around and moan that Obama and his cronies in the minority refuse to compromise.

Plenty of Republican strategists in 2013 also thought staging a shutdown was a bad idea. While polls showed that Americans didn't really care for ObamaCare, they loathed the idea of defunding the government to stop it.

On immigration, however, a plurality of Americans wants Obama to let Republicans set the agenda. And constitutionality aside, the legal debate surrounding Obama's planned action leaves Democrats with a dubious position to defend. Democrats will have a harder time winning a shutdown messaging war this time around because more Americans side with their opponents.

There are other reasons to perpetuate dysfunction in Congress. When Obama first won the presidency, Republicans gambled that blanket obstruction was their best strategy for reclaiming power. In a moment of glib candor, McConnell vowed to make Obama a one-term president by refusing to work with him on anything. Outlining the strategy to The Atlantic, McConnell explained that Republicans "worked very hard to keep our fingerprints off" big legislation because "when you hang the 'bipartisan' tag on something, the perception is that differences have been worked out, and there's a broad agreement that that's the way forward."

It was a brazenly cynical ploy, to break the government and scoop up the pieces. But it eventually worked. It worked so well that National Review begged Republicans to keep right on doing nothing until 2016 lest they give the impression of bipartisanship and restore the public's confidence in Obama — and, by extension, Democrats.

Why would Republicans change course? Why wouldn't they keep scuttling effective governance, faulting Democrats, and reaping the benefits?

Republican leaders insist they don't want another government shutdown. But then again, they never wanted the last one, only going along after being cowed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and his Tea Party outrage machine. If Obama moves ahead on immigration, the furious backlash on the right could easily pressure Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and McConnell to cave to the wingers in their party.

Boehner has already said that "all options are on the table" to prevent Obama from acting alone. Republican lawmakers are "talking" amongst themselves about a shutdown. And for all the talk about reaching across the aisle in 2015, within days of winning the midterms Republicans were griping about poisoned wells and accusing Obama of thinking Americans are "stupid."

None of this is to suggest Republicans should force another shutdown. Last year's shutdown was self-serving politics at its worst, and the fact that lawmakers are even floating another one is a depressing reminder of how terrible and divisive Washington has become.

But from a purely political perspective, there may be more reasons for the GOP to pursue a shutdown than to oppose one.