Democrats will probably lose the 2014 elections. But it won't be a victory for conservatism.

Democrats are putting up a fight in deep red states. That means they're doing something right.

Iowa, North Carolina, Michigan, And Louisian Senate races
(Image credit: (David Greedy/Getty Images, Win McNamee/Getty Images, Win McNamee/Getty Images, Sean Gardner/Getty Images))

The chances are that Democrats will lose the Senate tomorrow. As when Republicans took control of the House in 2010, this will be spun by conservatives as a world-historical victory, a vindication of the conservative agenda, and an incontrovertible sign that President Obama's brand of liberalism will be forever consigned to the dustbin of history.

But if we take a closer look at the polls, we find quite a different story than that of 2010. Democrats are running behind in some states Obama won in 2012, like Colorado. But they are running very far ahead of his 2012 showing in other places, most surprisingly in red states. As Brian Beutler demonstrates:

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Ryan Cooper

Ryan Cooper is a national correspondent at TheWeek.com. His work has appeared in the Washington Monthly, The New Republic, and the Washington Post.