5 things you need to know about the 2014 midterm elections

Young voters
(Image credit: (Darren Hauck/Getty Images))

In a new episode of Political Wire's podcast, we chatted with Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report to get up to speed on the 2014 midterm election landscape.

Here are five takeaways:

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

2. More voters are becoming independents, not because they disagree with both parties, but because they're ashamed of the parties: The growth in the fraction of voters who identify as independents shouldn't lead people to conclude that Americans are losing their partisanship. Polling data suggests that even as independent affiliation has risen, most of those independents still lean toward one party. Walter said only about 10 percent of Americans don't lean to either party. Walter described these leaners' thoughts: "These two parties are an embarrassment. They can't get their act together in Washington," and until the parties do that, the leaners may ditch their party while still voting the party line.

3. Establishment Republicans may struggle to stop tea party primary challengers: As this GOP civil war continues, establishment Republicans are showing signs of fighting back, with some of them joining Democrats to pass a clean debt-ceiling hike. But that doesn't mean that establishment Republicans who face re-election can breathe easy. The threat of tea party primary challengers is real, and these candidates benefit in primaries because the staunchest conservatives are most likely to turn out. Establishment groups such as the Chamber of Commerce could step into primary fights to mobilize mainstream conservatives, Walter said. But at the end of the day the primaries' outcomes rest with the voters. That leaves the GOP establishment in an uneasy position: "There's just not all that much they can do."

4. Democrats may officially be outraising Republicans: But outside groups will help the GOP make up the difference: House Democrats' campaign arm is outraising its GOP counterpart, $53 million to $37 million. But those number fail to take into account the edge that GOP-aligned super PACs and interests have over Democratic-aligned organizations, Walter said. Groups like the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity are already pouring millions of dollars into efforts to defeat Democrats, Walter noted: "I think we'll see that Republican super PACs or [GOP-aligned] special interest groups will help even the playing field in terms of money, or they will provide Republicans with the advantage."

5. As of now, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to pick up seats: On the surface, the political landscape favors Republicans going into November. Turnout will likely favor GOP-leaning groups like white and older voters, as is usually the case in non-presidential years. Also Obama's approval numbers are weak. As it is, Democrats already face a daunting map. They're defending more Senate seats than Republicans, and most districts in the GOP-controlled House aren't competitive anymore. Still, there's a long way to go until November. The GOP's primary victors, the quality of both parties' general-election candidates, Obama's approval numbers and key policy developments could all tweak the landscape, Walter said.

Listen to the entire conversation here:

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or RSS to get episodes automatically downloaded.

Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political websites. He also runs Wonk Wire and the Political Dictionary. Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and COO of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. senator and governor. Goddard is also co-author of You Won — Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including The Washington Post, USA TodayBoston Globe, San Francisco ChronicleChicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Christian Science Monitor. Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.