How immigration reform could save taxpayers nearly $1 trillion
An economic case for the controversial legislation
The Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday that the sweeping immigration bill before the Senate could dramatically pare down the national deficit, giving proponents of the legislation a powerful new selling point as Congress moves closer to a final vote.
Should the bill, as it is currently written, become law, it would boost the U.S. population by 10.4 million over the next decade while lowering the deficit by $197 billion over the same period, the CBO said in a report. While the CBO said the federal government would need to increase spending by $262 billion as a result of the bill, those outlays would be more than offset by $459 billion in new revenue, much of it coming from payroll taxes.
The CBO assumed that some eight million of the estimated 11 million undocumented workers in the U.S. would seek legal status under the law. The bipartisan Gang of Eight's legislation includes a provision that would allow undocumented workers to gradually become citizens.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The bill's backers quickly embraced the report, saying it would build momentum to push through their ambitious legislation.
"This debunks the idea that immigration reform is anything other than a boon to our economy, and robs the bill's opponents of one of their last remaining arguments," Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement.
In addition to the projected savings over the first 10 years, the report estimated the government would save an extra $700 billion over the next 10.
The main cause for that huge economic boost? A larger working population, with an influx of members who pay more in taxes than they reap in benefits.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
A recent study in the journal Health Affairs found that immigrants were largely keeping Medicare afloat by paying into the system but not tapping its benefits in equal measure.
Critics of the immigration reform bill have argued that it would be too costly to implement, and that it would become a drain on public welfare programs. A widely debunked Heritage Foundation report last month claimed the bill would cost taxpayers $6.3 trillion over the next half-century.
The CBO, the government's nonpartisan scoring body, is just the latest institution to conclude that Heritage's estimate was way off base.
"This isn't just a good CBO report. It's a wildly good CBO report," said The Washington Post's Ezra Klein. "They're basically saying immigration reform is a free lunch: It cuts the deficit by growing the economy."
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R), who has emerged as the leading player in the immigration debate, echoed that point in framing the report as a conservative case for immigration reform.
"The CBO has further confirmed what most conservative economists have found: Reforming our immigration system is a net benefit for our economy, American workers and taxpayers," he said in a statement.
However, the projected positive fiscal impact does not mean opposition to the bill is sure to soften overnight.
Still, the GOP-led House will only come under more pressure as their Senate counterparts, like Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), tout the numbers.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has said he'd like to hold a vote on the immigration bill before the July 4 recess.
Jon Terbush is an associate editor at TheWeek.com covering politics, sports, and other things he finds interesting. He has previously written for Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, and Business Insider.
-
Kate Summerscale's 6 favorite true crime books about real murder cases
Feature The best-selling author recommends works by Helen Garner, Gwen Adshead, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Team of bitter rivals
Opinion Will internal tensions tear apart Trump's unlikely alliance?
By Theunis Bates Published
-
6 elegant homes in the Mediterranean style
Feature Featuring an award-winning mansion in Colorado and an Alhambra palace-inspired home in Washington
By The Week Staff Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published