Are Republicans in danger of losing the House?

The GOP effort to seize control of the Senate is losing steam, and some Democrats are boasting that even the GOP's House majority is imperiled

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi
(Image credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances of keeping control of the Senate. Few analysts, however, have given them much of a chance to retake control of the House. Much-watched electoral prognosticator Sabato's Crystal Ball, for example, predicts a net Democratic pickup of a measly four House seats — far short of the 25 the Left needs to seize a majority. But House Democrats are bullish, with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) baffling CNN's Candy Crowley last weekend by predicting that Democrats "have a very excellent chance to take back the House." And not every analysts thinks that's bonkers. Could the GOP really lose its House majority in November?

Yes. Democrats could win back the House: "Predicting the House outcome is challenging," says Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. But a very accurate predictor in recent elections has been the generic congressional preference poll. In 2010, for example, the polls showed the GOP with a +7 advantage, and they and beat Democrats in the nationwide House vote by 6.6 percent, seizing a whopping 63 seats. These days, the pendulum is swinging the other way, and Democrats now have a +4 advantage. If that holds, "the probability of a Democratic takeover is 74 percent, with a median 16-seat majority."

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