Are Republicans in danger of losing the House?
The GOP effort to seize control of the Senate is losing steam, and some Democrats are boasting that even the GOP's House majority is imperiled
Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances of keeping control of the Senate. Few analysts, however, have given them much of a chance to retake control of the House. Much-watched electoral prognosticator Sabato's Crystal Ball, for example, predicts a net Democratic pickup of a measly four House seats — far short of the 25 the Left needs to seize a majority. But House Democrats are bullish, with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) baffling CNN's Candy Crowley last weekend by predicting that Democrats "have a very excellent chance to take back the House." And not every analysts thinks that's bonkers. Could the GOP really lose its House majority in November?
Yes. Democrats could win back the House: "Predicting the House outcome is challenging," says Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. But a very accurate predictor in recent elections has been the generic congressional preference poll. In 2010, for example, the polls showed the GOP with a +7 advantage, and they and beat Democrats in the nationwide House vote by 6.6 percent, seizing a whopping 63 seats. These days, the pendulum is swinging the other way, and Democrats now have a +4 advantage. If that holds, "the probability of a Democratic takeover is 74 percent, with a median 16-seat majority."
"Republicans at risk of losing the House?"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
No. Republicans will keep the House: "Most projections show House Republicans on track to keep their majority in the next Congress," says Shira Toeplitz at Roll Call. Congress usually doesn't have big swings in presidential election years. Plus, with Romney floundering, GOP super PAC money will flow to House races instead of the presidential contest. And most importantly, "Republicans controlled the redistricting process in most key states last year, solidifying large gains they made in 2010." There just aren't that many seats in play.
"Mitt Romney's incredible shrinking coattails"
This could go either way: Who should we believe, asks Dylan Matthews at The Washington Post. Wang, a Princeton neuroscientist who "works on election modeling as a hobby," puts Democrats' chance of a takeover at 74 percent, but political scientist John Sides and his team at the blog The Monkey Cage, who eschew House polls for "a model that uses GDP, the president’s party and approval rating, incumbency, and district-level presidential vote," give the GOP a three-fourths chance of keeping power. The bottom line: Nobody knows for sure.
"Do Democrats have a 74 percent chance of retaking the House?"
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Xi-Biden meeting: what's in it for both leaders?
Today's Big Question Two superpowers seek to stabilise relations amid global turmoil but core issues of security, trade and Taiwan remain
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published