Do Republicans now expect a contested convention?
With no end in sight for the often-ugly GOP fight, party leaders are reportedly gearing up for their first contested presidential convention since 1976
After watching the GOP presidential nomination fight drag on for several months, Republican leaders are now seriously preparing for a convention in August at which no candidate has the necessary 1,144 delegates to win the nomination outright, report Jeff Zeleney and Jim Rutenberg in The New York Times. To do so, "campaign and party lawyers are dusting off their party rule books" — the last open GOP convention was 36 years ago, when Ronald Reagan challenged incumbent President Gerald Ford in 1976. It's not just the GOP establishment who's eyeing this scenario: Newt Gingrich is openly campaigning for a floor fight in Tampa, and Rick Santorum is also pushing for an open convention, albeit a bit more quietly. Does the GOP actually expect the fight between Mitt Romney and Santorum to last until August? Here's what you should know:
Where does the race stand now?
According to the AP's count, Romney has 515 delegates, Santorum has 253, Newt Gingrich has 131, and Ron Paul has 50. If the race continues on its present trajectory, Santorum could pick up another 500 or so delegates and Gingrich could tack on another 150, says Rich Stowell in The Washington Times. Under these "rosiest of outcomes for Gingrich and Santorum," Romney narrowly misses 1,144, and "that's a problem" for him. "But it's less of a problem than his opponents have." For Santorum to overtake Romney, he would have to win about 70 percent of the remaining delegates — a highly unlikely scenario. It's far more probable, says The New York Times' Nate Silver, that Romney will get to 1,144. If things go well, he'll remain "on pace to clinch the Republican nomination after Utah votes on June 26 or after California and several large states do on June 5."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Why has the GOP failed to find consensus?
"The race has careened from state to state," with Romney winning a few here and Santorum a few there, says Ronald Brownstein at National Journal, but there's been a "strikingly stable patterns of support" for the two frontrunners. If moderates and economic conservatives keep breaking for Romney and social conservatives and evangelical Christians keep voting for Santorum, "the longest and most closely fought Republican nomination race since 1976 will grind on with the former Massachusetts governor likely strong enough to retain his lead, but too weak to eliminate his principal rival."
What happens if this does go all the way to Tampa?
Some "GOP big hitters, such as Mike Huckabee, have said a brokered GOP convention would be a 'train wreck' and a 'disaster' for the party," says Jonathan Karl at ABC News, but former RNC chairman and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour says a contested convention is "not necessarily all bad." Current RNC chairman Reince Priebus tells CBS News he doesn't expect it to come to that, adding, "We're not making plans for a brokered convention." Yes, "more likely than not, GOP voters will coalesce around Romney" before Tampa, says Stowell.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Sources: ABC News, AP, CBS News, Fox News, National Journal, New York Times (2), Politico, Washington Times
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Trump gets $289M break, first criminal trial date
Speed Read The former president's fraud bond has been reduced to $175 million from $464 million
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Today's political cartoons - March 26, 2024
Cartoons Tuesday's cartoons - the House GOP abandon ship, Joe Biden sets his stall, and more
By The Week US Published
-
US-Israel rift widens after UN cease-fire resolution
Speed Read The U.S. declined to veto a U.N. resolution calling for a two-week "immediate cease-fire" in Gaza
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Xi-Biden meeting: what's in it for both leaders?
Today's Big Question Two superpowers seek to stabilise relations amid global turmoil but core issues of security, trade and Taiwan remain
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will North Korea take advantage of Israel-Hamas conflict?
Today's Big Question Pyongyang's ties with Russia are 'growing and dangerous' amid reports it sent weapons to Gaza
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published