Santorum’s Southern surge

Mitt Romney’s claim to inevitability took a big blow this week, as his conservative rival Rick Santorum won surprise victories in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Polls had suggested Santorum would struggle to compete in the South with Romney and Newt Gingrich, but an overwhelmingly evangelical turnout narrowly pushed the socially conservative Catholic over the top. Gingrich finished second in states that his own campaign had described as “must-wins.” He said he would fight on until the GOP convention in August, but will now be under heavy pressure from anti-Romney conservatives to exit the race and give Santorum a chance to take on Romney head-to-head.

Romney managed only third place in both states, but because delegates were awarded proportionally, he increased his lead in the overall delegate count. With victories in American Samoa and Hawaii, Romney now has a total of 494 to Santorum’s 251.

It’s become “a race of mathematics versus a movement,” said John Dickerson in Slate.com. Romney has the most delegates, but with his firey populism, Santorum “continues to captivate the grassroots heart of the party.” His strategy now is to deny Romney the 1,144 delegates he needs to capture the nomination, and force an open convention. But exit polls show that Santorum still hasn’t convinced most Republicans that he can beat Obama. If voters think he’s unelectable, his “emerging position as the conservative juggernaut” means little.

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He also still has Gingrich in his way, said Jonathan S. Tobin in CommentaryMagazine.com. Conservatives may clamor for his withdrawal, but Gingrich “isn’t likely to heed the call.” He still has funding from grassroots donors, dislikes both Santorum and Romney, and most of all he “really thinks America deserves a Gingrich presidency.” Whether Santorum likes it or not, Newt is here to the bitter end.

Still, Romney remains the most likely nominee, said Nate Silver in NYTimes.com. “These were the sorts of states that Romney was ‘supposed’ to lose,” and he still ended up with the most delegates. But a loss to Santorum in Illinois next week would “shift the overall course of the race,” increasing the odds of a contested convention. Polls show a virtual tie there between Santorum and Romney, so “we should have a real race on our hands.”