Can Democrats ride Medicare to victory in 2012?

Democrats are beaming — and scheming — after their hammering of Paul Ryan's Medicare plan helped tip a special election in their favor

Rep. Paul Ryan
(Image credit: MICHAEL REYNOLDS/epa/Corbis)

For two years, Democrats have been getting "pummeled over spending and the size of government," says Alexander Burns at Politico. But they "appear to have found a political weapon that’s capable of evening out the fight: Medicare." The evidence? Democrat Kathy Hochul scored an upset victory in Tuesday's special election in New York's conservative 26th congressional district — partly by linking her Republican opponent to the House GOP budget that would transform the government health care plan for the elderly into a voucher system. Was this a one-time fluke, or can Democrats use this issue to regain control of the House in 2012?

Medicare could be the Democrats' ticket to victory: The odds that Democrats can win back the House, says Nate Silver at The New York Times, have certainly improved thanks to the Medicare debate, which polls suggest was a major factor in how people voted on Tuesday. Hochul's district is more Republican than the nation as a whole by six percentage points, so imagine the potential impact when Democrats "make a major issue of Medicare ... in every competitive Congressional election next year."

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