2012: The Republican dilemma

last updated 8 January 2015

As Republicans survey the field of possible 2012 presidential candidates, said Michael Shear in The New York Times, they’re feeling a rising sense of panic. Fairly late in the usual election cycle, they’re still “waiting for Mr. or Ms. Right,” and even conservative stalwarts like Rush Limbaugh are calling the contenders “one of the weakest fields” in recent times. It didn’t help that Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour suddenly dropped out last week, citing a lack of “fire in the belly,” said Gloria Borger in CNN.com. Translation: He didn’t think he could beat an incumbent president. With former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and other possible candidates still “dithering,” Republicans may be stuck with a choice between boring establishment candidates like Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, or fiery insurgents like Tea Party favorite Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump.

The conventional wisdom is wrong, said Jay Cost in WeeklyStandard.com. It’s true that the GOP has no perfect candidate, but Obama and the Democrats “have good reason to worry about the emerging Republican field.” The GOP has “four serious contenders who would be formidable in a general election”: Romney, Pawlenty, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. Naysayers carp about their supposed lack of charisma, but now that voters have lived through the glitzy chaos of Obama’s rock-star approach to governance, they just may prefer a solid conservative with real fiscal credibility. Republican voters may not be excited yet, said David Shribman in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, but that will instantly “change once the GOP nominates someone.”

It really does depend on who is nominated, said Alvin Felzenberg in USNews.com. “The two most plausible presidents the Republicans could field, Florida’s Jeb Bush and Gen. David Petraeus, show no inclination to run,” and the GOP’s roster of young, attractive office-holders—Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley—say they’re not interested, probably because they’ll have a much better chance in 2016. The GOP’s “young up-and-comers” are wise to keep their powder dry, said Charles Krauthammer in The Washington Post. That may mean Republicans have to draft Rep. Paul Ryan, their “de facto leader” in the looming budget battles. Unfortunately, “Ryan has zero inclination to run.” So “can anyone rustle up a posse?”