A wicked snowstorm swept through Maine just 48 hours before Election Day 2014, knocking out electricity to a big swath of customers along the mid-coast. You'd think that might keep potential voters away from the polls in an already low-enthusiasm midterm campaign. Yet the Pine Tree State registered the nation's highest voter turnout in 2014, about 53 percent.
At the same time, Colorado residents didn't have to trudge through snow, downed power lines, or confront any other obstacles in casting ballots. In fact, they didn't even have to leave the warmth and comfort of their homes. Colorado for the first time used an all-mail voting system, aimed at boosting participation. The change helped only modestly, if at all. Roughly 2 million voters cast ballots, an increase over the 1.8 million in the 2010 midterm elections. Factor in natural population growth over four years in an economically booming state, and that's not much of an uptick.
Participation rates in these two states reflect a paradox in American politics: Making it easier to vote doesn't mean eligible Americans will actually vote. It's an uncomfortable truth that casts doubt on well-intentioned but likely futile efforts to jack up voting rates.
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There's really only one thing that has worked, and will continue to do so, in raising voter participation rates: having candidates and issues on the ballot that potential voters care about. Why do you think turnout in presidential elections is so much higher than midterms? Because people care.
In Maine last year, that came in the form of Republican Gov. Paul LePage, seeking a second term. "A conservative and combative populist, LePage's tenure has been marked by testy relations with lawmakers and the news media," writes the 2014 Almanac of American Politics. In 2014 LePage was a top Democratic target, and Democratic voters came out to cast ballots against him. But he also had a reservoir of goodwill among Maine's mercurial electorate. Gov. LePage was able to play the victim in his re-election bid and helped gin up conservative and independent voters. Turnout was so good for Republicans than they picked off an open congressional seat in the state's northern tier, won by former state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin.
This country has largely moved beyond its disgraceful history of systematic injustice and violence that prevented huge groups of Americans from voting. Yes, some states still come in for scrutiny over voter ID laws. Supporters rather tenuously claim they are necessary to prevent fraud. Opponents contend that they're thinly disguised efforts at suppressing votes of minorities and the poor. But even here, the connection is tricky. Looking at seven states below the Mason-Dixon Line, Bloomberg View writer Francis Barry found that "the states with a voter-ID requirement, including Louisiana and Florida, had the highest turnout rates; the two states where no ID is required — Maryland and North Carolina — had the lowest."
By and large, if people want to vote, they will. If they're not so inclined, there's little that can be done to change their minds. Making voting as easy as filling out a form at home won't necessarily get more people to participate. And a heavy snowstorm won't prevent truly motivated voters from doing so.
The key is to motivate them. And the only way to do that is to have candidates, initiatives, and politics that get Americans excited and invested.
We've got a long way to go.
