As the wind blows this very instant, the two Republican candidates who offend the least amount of people in their party are the Floridians Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. Fully three-quarters of polled GOP primary voters say they could see themselves supporting either of them.
A two-man race between them would be a good one. Rubio is the most naturally gifted GOP candidate on a political stage. His youth and his ethnic background make him a very natural contrast to Hillary Clinton, and his campaign announcement very obviously got into her head, when he described her as the candidate of "yesterday."
Although most pundits underestimate how much Rubio's deviations on the issue of immigration can cost him, I've argued that there is a strong logic to choosing Rubio. Voting for him will make Republicans feel good about themselves. His very presence at the top of the ticket would give Republicans the heel-kicking feeling of voting for the future.
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And Rubio's story, which he invokes at every opportunity, allows Republicans to tell themselves that conservative principles are not just the apologetics of old, privileged, white interests. Rubio's political success will be used by the conservative movement as a demonstration of the universal applicability of their ideology's timeless principles. See, you don't have to be Trent Lott to be a conservative. You can look like this handsome young son of immigrants!
I've argued all of the above myself. And I've similarly argued that Bush's outspoken endorsement of Common Core will make him an enemy of voters who care about education policy in a way that wasn't the case for his father or his brother. I've mentioned that many of the impressive economic numbers in Bush's Florida were the result of national trends, most notably a property bubble that burst just after his term — and during his own brother's economic leadership, no less.
I've argued that Bush has to be "twice as good" as the other candidates to overcome his last name, which is not only a brand that the American people have soured on twice before, but one that will rob the GOP of the generational and dynastic arguments that could be leveraged so effectively against Clinton. I've compared the Bush-Clinton matchup to the rise of a dark cloud over the horizon that blots out all light and hope with it.
And yet, I still think Bush could survive and hold off a Rubio challenge.
The Clinton name is associated with memories of a happy time in America, and the Bush name is associated with wars and recessions. But the relative disadvantages and advantages of dynastic politics run both ways. The Bush family name would be even more deadly against a fresh Democratic challenger. Although the balance isn't entirely symmetrical, the fact that a Clinton is the likely Democratic candidate in 2016 cancels some of the negativity surrounding the candidacy of another Bush. Media reports about the unseemliness of dynastic politics would hit both parties, not just the GOP.
Bush can play the experience card pretty hard on Rubio. In his announcement speech, Bush made an argument for governors like himself over senators like Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Lindsey Graham, saying that he didn't have a hand in making Washington the mess that it is. Bush can personalize this critique even more with Rubio: He can imply that Rubio is as unaccomplished as Barack Obama was in 2008.
And the fact is that Rubio talks about lots of ideas, but he hasn't translated many of those ideas into law. His most notable legislative endeavor was a failed and detested reform of the immigration system.
Rubio has an okay relationship with the GOP's donor class, but Bush has a better one. Wall Street loves Bush. Meanwhile, back in 2008, Rubio was all aboard for Mike Huckabee, the candidate most hated by the GOP's donor class and by much of the conservative commentariat. Bush will not be the candidate of the Tea Party, but that's also given him freedom to embrace issues like religious liberty in a way fewer Republicans are willing to try. And he's conservative enough to win the primary.
Rubio's pitch that his biography is an edifying story about America may be uniquely vulnerable to challenge. The reports about his driving tickets and his spending habits in The New York Times didn't do damage. But he's already been caught flat-footed on the exact timing of his family's exit from Cuba. If he's selling his biography as a version of the American dream, he better have the details right.
And if I'm allowed a prediction based on a hunch, I think Bush is just going to make fewer mistakes.
