William F. Buckley famously said that, when it came to Republican primaries, he supported the most conservative candidate among the ones who were electable. If all conservatives hewed to that standard it would be bad news for Jeb Bush, since he is neither the most conservative nor the most electable GOP candidate.
It's worth rehashing the obvious: Given America's democratic ethos and his brother's record, Bush would be a bad GOP candidate in any election cycle. But he's particularly bad for the 2016 election cycle. First, because the Republican Party's number one political challenge is to shed its image (too often grounded in reality) as the party of rich people, for rich people, by rich people. Second, because he is the worst possible candidate in the field to run against Hillary Clinton, who like Bush is a political heir, a throwback to the past, and associated with a legacy of cynical political manipulation.
It must be said that Bush was a very successful governor of Florida. He is a policy wonk and a good manager, and has a talented mind. The world might be a very different place, perhaps much better, had Jeb won his first run for governor and George had lost, paving the way for Jeb to run for president in 2000. But in this world, it's a bad idea for Jeb Bush to run for president. It's not his fault, but it's the truth.
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All of which makes the news that Bush handily beat fundraising records — with $114 million in the bank before the party has really even begun — all the more depressing.
Don't donors have just a bit of political sense? Surely they must understand why a Bush candidacy would be bad for the GOP. Don't rich people usually want to back winning horses? Or is the Bush network so impressive that it can round up $114 million in pity money and party favors?
We are told that Team Bush intended to "shock and awe" his rivals and potential rivals into submission. Suffice it to say it hasn't worked. The Republican field is as crowded as ever, with a bench so deep that successful two-term governors of important states, such as Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Chris Christie, can be considered second tier. And why would "shock and awe" work when these candidates are as aware of Bush's weaknesses as anybody else?
Now, there's the myth of the GOP as a party run by insiders, money men, and the dark powers of the Establishment (always a capital E), who always get the candidate they want in the end. The GOP might have its rebels and its populists and its Tea Party types, but ultimately it's McCain and Romney who get the nod, not Huckabee or Santorum. "Democrats love to fall in love, Republicans love to fall in line," goes the proverb.
All of this creates the impression — one that certainly prevails in the Bush camp — that whatever his flaws, Bush can make it to the finish line as long as he can raise enough money, accumulate enough Establishment support, and be a good enough candidate. He may be bruised by the primary; he may tarnish the GOP brand in a fusillade of negative advertising; he may be forced to move to the right — but he'll make it across the finish line.
As a conservative who wishes the GOP well, I can only say: I hope that's not true.
I don't think it's true, either. I think that people are actual human beings who make their own decisions, no matter how many negative ads Bush deploys. I think that the Establishment candidate tends to win because many Republicans factor electability highly in their choice — which in this case won't help Bush.
Still, $114 million is a lot of money, and there's a lot more where that came from. So here's to hoping money can't buy you a Republican nomination.
