Everyone needs to stop freaking out about Brexit
It does not signal the crackup of the U.K., the resumption of World War II hostilities, or President Donald Trump. Breathe.


On Friday morning the consequences of Britain's vote to leave the European Union started to come in quick succession. Prime Minister David Cameron was going to be eased out — no! — he was resigning. Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, was to face a no-confidence vote. The SNP's Nichola Sturgeon demanded a new referendum on Scottish independence. And Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness called for a border poll in Ireland. Markets roiled. The pound cratered. And pundits declared it the end of the United Kingdom and the resumption of World War II hostilities.
But now it is time to slow down. Much of the panic is just directionless fear.
First, the Brexit vote doesn't automatically trigger a Brexit. Parliament has to act, and even then they may not immediately trigger Article 50, which creates the off-ramp. Previous momentous steps in British life featured a similar delay between the vote and enactment — think Irish Home Rule in 1912-14 — to create time and space for opponents to organize and find a way to defeat the "winning" result. It's not over until the U.K. is actually out.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Second, Scotland will probably not leave the United Kingdom. Beyond the fact that there is something a little humorous about good-hearted liberals cheering on the nationalism of Scotland, which would create a 96 percent white ethnostate, there are serious obstacles to Scotland leaving.
Unlike in 2014, Scotland can no longer delude itself that it will become a Nordic-style social democracy, riding a wave of soaring oil revenues to higher living standards and greater equality simultaneously. The U.K. would also have to agree to the independence referendum, a task they may see as too important to take on while conducting negotiations on its exit. And, really, does Scotland want to cede control of its most important trade relationship — with the new Scotland-less U.K. — to Brussels? Lastly, for any of this to work, the SNP would somehow have to convince everyone to allow it the novel route of separating from the U.K. and gaining its own independent status in the EU just as Britain leaves it. This is an enormous leap for a country that, frankly, offers very little to the EU, besides the chance to spite England.
As for the isle to the West, Sinn Fein's demand for a border poll to end partition is extremely unlikely to result in a united, 32-county Ireland. It's bluffing.
The six counties of Northern Ireland are an economically dependent statelet. Nearly a third of its citizens are public employees, compared to less than 20 percent in the U.K. or 24 percent in Ireland. Protestant Unionists still outnumber Catholic Nationalists in the North. And the desire of some Protestants to remain in the EU is not going to encourage Orangemen to vote for a united Ireland, when it is being championed by parties they see as historic adversaries.
Next up: economics. Some worry that a kind of trade war will break out between the U.K. and the EU, and Britain will be decimated. That's hard to envision. Powerful European nations sell a lot of products into the British market. Nearly 20 percent of German-made cars are sold there. And trying to inflict punitive trade terms would bring the biggest wrath on small EU states like Ireland, for whom Britain is their largest trading partner.
And finally, everyone should slow down in assuming that Leave's success means Donald Trump is going to become president of the United States.
It may be that media browbeats some people into becoming "shy" voters, who tell pollsters they will vote for the elite-approved choice, and then vote for the populist cause in the privacy of their booth. But Leave had advantages Trump does not.
Because it was an issue referendum, traditional Labour voters were able to vote for it without having to vote for their historically hated Tories. Leave also had multiple personalities. It had high Tory advocates who are concerned with sovereignty. It had economic populists who think the EU is a threat to working-class jobs or the NHS. It had advocates who focused on anti-immigration sentiment. Not all "Leavers" agree on everything, and some of them openly despise each other.
In America, a "build that wall" referendum would likely be much more popular than Donald Trump himself. But it is Donald Trump that is running this November.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Michael Brendan Dougherty is senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is the founder and editor of The Slurve, a newsletter about baseball. His work has appeared in The New York Times Magazine, ESPN Magazine, Slate and The American Conservative.
-
How the woke right gained power in the US
Under the radar The term has grown in prominence since Donald Trump returned to the White House
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK
-
Codeword: April 24, 2025
The Week's daily codeword puzzle
By The Week Staff
-
Crossword: April 24, 2025
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff
-
Why Russia removed the Taliban's terrorist designation
The Explainer Russia had designated the Taliban as a terrorist group over 20 years ago
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Inside the Israel-Turkey geopolitical dance across Syria
THE EXPLAINER As Syria struggles in the wake of the Assad regime's collapse, its neighbors are carefully coordinating to avoid potential military confrontations
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weapons
The Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
By Abby Wilson
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray
In the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Ukrainian election: who could replace Zelenskyy?
The Explainer Donald Trump's 'dictator' jibe raises pressure on Ukraine to the polls while the country is under martial law
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK
-
Why Serbian protesters set off smoke bombs in parliament
THE EXPLAINER Ongoing anti-corruption protests erupted into full view this week as Serbian protesters threw the country's legislature into chaos
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Who is the Hat Man? 'Shadow people' and sleep paralysis
In Depth 'Sleep demons' have plagued our dreams throughout the centuries, but the explanation could be medical
By The Week Staff
-
Why Assad fell so fast
The Explainer The newly liberated Syria is in an incredibly precarious position, but it's too soon to succumb to defeatist gloom
By The Week UK