Trump is back. Did anyone miss him?
If Trump wants America to forgive and forget his misdeeds, he may want to stay out of the limelight for a while
Six weeks after leaving the White House, former President Donald Trump re-emerged Sunday onstage at the Conservative Political Action Conference, to once again dispute the results of the last presidential election and to not-so-coyly hint he might run for another term in 2024.
"Do you miss me yet?" he asked the crowd.
The "we love you!" chants from attendees suggested that, yes, Trump's supporters still support Trump. No surprise there. But it is fair to suspect that the broader American electorate has welcomed the former president's absence. His national approval rating hit its low-point of 34 percent in the final week before he left office, after averaging just 41 percent over the four years of his term. (President Joe Biden, by comparison, currently boasts a 54 percent approval rating.) If Trump really is thinking about another election campaign, he'll need to dig himself out of a pretty deep hole.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
There is one thing he could do — but almost certainly won't — to broaden his appeal: He could just lay low for a little while. He could actually try to let us miss him.
After all, even wildly divisive presidents tend to become more popular after leaving office. Like Trump, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were turned out of office by voters after a single term — but the public eventually came to embrace them in their dotage: According to Gallup, Carter had a 55 percent "retrospective" approval rating in 2018, while Bush clocked in at 64 percent. Of American presidents elected since 1960, only Watergate-disgraced Richard Nixon remained broadly unpopular in the poll, with just 28 percent of respondents giving him a thumbs-up. Even Lyndon Johnson, who slunk out of office after presiding over the darkest days of the Vietnam War, mustered 48 percent support, while just 33 percent of those polled disapproved of his administration. Americans, it seems, are generally a forgiving lot.
This general approval for former commanders-in-chief isn't an accident. Ex-presidents achieve their post-White House prestige by stepping out of the limelight, distancing themselves from the political battles that defined their careers.
"It happens because they're not making controversial decisions," Shirley Anne Warshaw, a professor of political science at Gettysburg College, said in 2012. "The first few years out of office very little changes, but four or five years afterwards they've built a presidential library, raised foundation money, and start doing philanthropic activities."
Nostalgia can have big political ramifications. George W. Bush was the establishment choice for the GOP nomination in 2000 — and then, almost accidentally, to the presidency itself — in large part because he had the good fortune to share a name with his father. If reporting is correct, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump both might have ambitions to duplicate the Bush family's feat.
But their father isn't one to cede the spotlight: Trump's CPAC speech, coming so soon after he left office, was an unprecedented act for a former president in the modern era — a flat declaration that he plans to continue to dominate Republican politics rather than attempt to become a semi-retired statesman. That means it will be much more difficult for him to achieve the post-presidential popularity bump of his predecessors, and for his children to take advantage.
Believe it or not, popularity still matters in politics. Yes, Trump won a presidential term without a popular vote majority — and given the growing threat of voter suppression, it's possible he could do so again — but that is really hard to do. It is a lot easier to win the presidency if most Americans actually like you. In his comments on Sunday, Trump gave no indication of rethinking his longtime strategy of appealing to conservatives and only to conservatives, of reaching out beyond his base supporters to persuadable voters. He is sticking with the true believers.
Their faith may be slipping. At CPAC's straw poll this weekend, 95 percent of attendees said they wanted to continue Trump's policies and agenda — but a much smaller share, 68 percent, said they want Trump to run for president again in 2024. Even among conservatives, it seems there is some room for doubt about the former president's future political prospects.
It may be that, after the Jan. 6 insurrection, and the second impeachment, Donald Trump is too toxic to voters beyond his base to ever again mount a serious challenge for the presidency. And Trump may not actually want to run — he could be using the threat just to keep his influence and status as the de facto head of the Republican Party. But if Trump wanted to rebuild his popularity, he could just withdraw from public activity for awhile and let America's collective memory start to fog over a bit. How can we miss him if he never leaves?
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a freelance writer who has spent nine years as a syndicated columnist, co-writing the RedBlueAmerica column as the liberal half of a point-counterpoint duo. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic, The Kansas City Star and Heatmap News. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
5 sleeper hit cartoons about Trump's struggles to stay awake in court
Cartoons Artists take on courtroom tranquility, war on wokeness, and more
By The Week US Published
-
The true story of Feud: Capote vs. The Swans
In depth The writer's fall from grace with his high-flying socialite friends in 1960s Manhattan is captured in a new Disney+ series
By Adrienne Wyper, The Week UK Published
-
Scottie Scheffler: victory for the 'pre-eminent golfer of this era'
Why Everyone's Talking About Masters victory is Scheffler's second in three years
By The Week Staff Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published