Where does Belarus stand on the Ukraine war?

Russia plans to absorb neighbouring Belarus by 2030, according to leaked documents seen by US and European journalists.

The 2021 Russian presidential administration paper spells out the integration of Belarus politically, militarily and economically with Moscow as part of a so-called “Union State”, said Yahoo News.

Russia’s domestic, foreign and military intelligence services (the FSB, SVR and GRU, respectively) “actively contributed to the Union State plan”, the news site said, citing an unnamed Western intelligence officer with direct knowledge of the document.

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Despite Russia’s military intervention in neighbouring Ukraine, Yahoo News quoted the Western officer as saying: “The long-term goal to achieve total control over Belarus is still in force and hasn’t changed.”

Last month, Russia and Belarus expanded their joint military training exercises, raising concerns that Moscow is pressuring its closest ally to join the war in Ukraine.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko had previously claimed his country would not join the war, but his territory was used as a “launchpad” for a failed push towards Kyiv in February last year, said the The Moscow Times.

The 2030 plans

Russia and Belarus are “already formally part of a Union State, as per a 1999 agreement”, said Deutsche Welle (DW). But the leaked document goes further, suggesting “Russia’s plans are more about annexing Belarus by 2030”.

Entitled “Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus”, the 17-page document “speaks of pushing back Western influence in the region and fortification against NATO”, the German broadcaster added.

One of its stated goals – holding constitutional reforms based on Russia’s priorities – “has already taken place in 2022, when Lukashenko held a referendum that was described as conciliatory to Putin”, said DW.

Military support for Russia

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, last month vowed to extend sanctions on Russia to Belarus, accusing the country of militarily supporting the Kremlin in Ukraine.

Her comments came after Lukashenko apparently visited a Russian military base to meet troops and discuss the joint drills.

Unverified reports from Telegram channels monitoring military activity in Belarus suggested that “between 1,400 and 1,600” Russian troops then arrived in the city of Vitebsk, said Foreign Policy. While the information was not confirmed by official sources, it adds to “growing fears that Russia is planning a new military push from the north”, said the foreign affairs magazine.

Resisting the pressure

Belarus “depends on Moscow for fuel and security”, said The New York Times, and although Lukashenko has so far resisted being “drawn more centrally” into the war, he is under increasing pressure from the Kremlin.

Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to the Belarussian capital of Minsk in late December, the first time he had done so since 2019, raising further concerns. At the time, Lukashenko described himself and Putin as “co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet”.

Earlier in the year, Putin said that Moscow would supply Minsk with Iskander tactical missile systems and other air defence systems.

Last week, Lukashenko told foreign reporters, including the BBC, that if a single soldier entered Belarus from Ukraine “with weapons to kill my people”, he would be “ready to wage war, alongside the Russians”.

View inside Belarus

After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, an unnamed US defence official told The Washington Post that it was “very clear Minsk is now an extension of the Kremlin”.

EU foreign affairs and security policy chief Josep Borrell also called Belarus a “Russian satellite state”.

At the time, Lukashenko blamed the West for the war, claiming that sanctions and the exclusion of some Russian banks from the Swift global payments system were responsible for “pushing Russia into World War Three”.

But another major invasion from Belarusian territory would cause Lukashenko “grave political damage”, his opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told The Atlantic last month.

“A great majority of Belarusians do not want to participate in this war,” she said, “and Lukashenko understands that too.”