Corporations: Crying all the way to the bank?

What will the Fed do to lower inflation

The Federal Reserve.
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Inflation may be eating into ordinary paychecks, but corporations and CEOs have been doing just fine, said Allison Morrow at CNN. Corporate leaders have been "quick to blame rising prices" on pandemic-related supply chain issues, or the war in Ukraine, or the federal rescue packages. Meanwhile, "they're making out like bandits." The median compensation for a CEO at an S&P 500 company hit a record $14.2 million in 2021, up 11.3 percent from the year before. By comparison, American workers' compensation grew 4 percent last year, which still puts them in the red when adjusted for the 8 percent growth in inflation. Meanwhile, overall corporate profit margins last year went up to 13 percent, said Matthew Boesler in Bloomberg, "a level reached in just one other three-month period during the past 70 years." No wonder Democrats have grown increasingly vocal about "opportunistic price hikes." The robust growth of so many bottom lines "tends to undermine the argument that soaring labor costs are what's driving the current surge in inflation."

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Corporate complaints of rising costs seem to ring hollow if you look back at the last year, said Justin Lahart in The Wall Street Journal, but the "earnings squeeze" they've been warning of may finally be here. Analysts still expect revenue growth, particularly for services and travel businesses. But profit margins are likely to come in much lower. Many businesses have been burdened with increases in commodity costs. And though labor costs have taken time to catch up, they're racing ahead now: Total payrolls for "private-sector employees were 11.1 percent higher in the first quarter than a year earlier."

From the Federal Reserve's perspective, the dampening of corporate profits is not a bad thing, said Lisa Abramowicz in Bloomberg. The Fed is not exactly "rooting against corporate America." But it wants to achieve "a soft landing" as it raises rates and tightens monetary policy. It does not want corporations to easily "pass on their rising costs to consumers and cause higher inflation expectations to become entrenched in the American psyche." So, the Fed will be watching earnings season closely. If corporations are still minting profits, the bank may feel it has to "tighten monetary policy more intensely and in ways that create greater risk of an economic downturn."

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