Only Arsenal stand between Chelsea and the Premier League title

Arsenal's faint title hopes rest squarely on the outcome of their Saturday lunchtime clash with Chelsea. Defeat at Stamford Bridge would be the final nail in the coffin for Arsenal in terms of a Premier League challenge, and would also increase the pressure on Arsene Wenger, who has yet to confirm whether he will stay on as manager next season.

And with Chelsea in danger of running away with the title an Arsenal victory represents the final hope for the chasing pack. However, few people believe the Gunners have much of a chance.

"Arsenal were shocking on Tuesday against Watford and they won't be relishing this trip to Stamford Bridge," says Paul Merson of Sky Sports. "It's a must-win game for Arsenal after their defeat to the Hornets, and they have got to go for it against the best team in the country. That will play into Chelsea's hands.

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"I just can't make a case for Arsenal here. Chelsea are running away with the league and I think they'll claim a comprehensive victory."

The turnaround since the two clubs faced each other earlier in the season has been spectacular notes Jonathan Pearce of the BBC.

"When Arsenal thumped the Blues 3-0 on 24 September they were three points ahead of their rivals after six games," he says. "A defeat here will leave them 12 points behind them after the subsequent 18 matches - an astonishing swing."

And he appears unconvinced by the manner in which Arsenal have been performing recently. He says Wenger's admission that his players weren't mentally prepared for the Watford game was "gobsmacking".

Wenger must play all his attacking cards at Stamford bridge. "They need quick thinking. Otherwise it'll be Chelsea's day and title," he warns.

Victory for Chelsea would guarantee them the league, but it would be a huge psychological blow. Their lead at the top of the table would be at least nine points, and could be in double figures if Spurs fail to beat Middlesbrough.

That would mean that the Blues could afford to lose their two remaining games against top six opposition (they face the two Manchester sides in April) and still canter to the title.

And the stats are in Chelsea's favour. Arsenal have lost their last four league games at Stamford Bridge, notes Eurosport. And it adds: "Chelsea have won eight successive Premier League home games – their best run in the competition since a sequence of 10 wins that ended in January 2015. The aggregate score in these eight games is 24-3 in Chelsea’s favour."

How Chelsea have dominated their rivals since Arsenal defeat

1 February

Chelsea face Arsenal in the Premier League hoping that the match will not be as big a turning point in their season as the sides' meeting earlier in the season proved.

In September Chelsea made the short trip across London to the Emirates where they were demolished 3-0 by the Gunners. At that point in the season, albeit after only six games, Antonio Conte's reign looked as though it could be a short-lived one with rumours circulating that he faced the sack.

The rumours may have been premature but it's not hard to see why there were concerns at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea's unconvincing side lay eighth in the table, below Crystal Palace, and ten points from their opening half-dozen games after conceding nine goals.

Above them Manchester City topped the table with six wins, Spurs were unbeaten in second place and Arsenal and Liverpool were on impressive winning runs, and had both recently beaten Chelsea. Even Man United were above the Blues, having scored more goals and conceded fewer.

But after the Arsenal defeat Conte acted, changing his formation and playing three centre-backs. Since then Chelsea's spectacular turnaround has been well documented. In 17 matches since 24 September, Chelsea have won 46 points from 17 games, scoring 38 goals and conceding just seven. But just as startling is the inability of any of their rivals to mount a sustained run.

Manchester City, who were eight points ahead of Chelsea are now 13 points behind. They have a game in hand, but that still amounts to a 21-point swing over the course of four months.

To win the title, history shows that a team needs to earn an average of more than two points per game.

Leicester's winning total of 81 points last season was the third lowest this century, and equated to 2.1 points per game. In 2012 and 2013 the champions earned 89 points (2.35 per match) and in 2014 the top four all managed an average above two per match.

But since Chelsea embarked on their charge up the table, their top six rivals, who all averaged between two and three points per game at the start of the season, have stumbled badly. Here's how they have fared:

Spurs: P17, W9, D6, L2 - 33 points at an average of 1.94

Arsenal: P17, W10, D4, L3 - 34 points at an average of two

Liverpool: P17, W9, D6, L2 - 33 points at an average of 1.94

Man City: P16, W7, D4, L5 - 25 points at an average of 1.56

Man Utd: P16, W7, D8, L1 - 29 points at an average of 1.8

Chelsea's record is rather different:

Chelsea: P17, W15, D1, L1 - 46 points at an average of 2.7

Unless the clash between Arsenal and Chelsea precipitates another sea change in the teams' respective fortunes, the title will be Chelsea's for the taking.