'Is Trump a crook?' becomes the defining GOP question

Former President Donald Trump has perhaps no greater asset than his ability to take any situation or circumstance, no matter how threatening or embarrassing or potentially disastrous, and convert it into a referendum on himself at large. Details become fuzzy, particulars are flattened, and in the end, Trump is able to convert just about anything into its most basic binary dynamic, with him at the center.

Now, facing a historical federal indictment for allegedly flouting espionage laws with his retention and mishandling of highly classified national security documents, Trump has once again maneuvered his critics and rivals within the GOP into an awkward, if familiar, gap between a rock and a hard place. While Democrats (and much of the public at large) are fairly uniform in their assessment of the seriousness of his alleged criminality, Republicans — particularly those vying against Trump for the GOP's 2024 presidential nomination — are stuck triangulating how best to respond to these unprecedented charges, even as they risk the wrath of Trump's unfailingly faithful base, upon whom their own political futures may very well rest.

Broadly, those responses have fallen into three (occasionally overlapping) buckets:

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Trump did nothing wrong

For the most part, proclamations (or unsubtly heavy-handed insinuations) of Trump's absolute innocence have come from the former president's congressional allies not troubled by the electoral math of a national campaign. Blasting the "phony Boxes Hoax indictment against President Trump," Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) claimed the indictment "reflects the most severe election interference on the part of the federal government that we have EVER seen!"

"The Biden DOJ is interfering in the 2024 election by bringing bogus charges against Biden's chief political opponent, President Trump," echoed Illinois Republican Rep. Mary Miller.

Democrats' heads "must ache painfully from never ending think tank sessions in white walled rooms" trying to "come up with" endless "fake accusations," Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) claimed in the midst of a lengthy, rambling Twitter message that encouraged followers to "beat these sick people."

Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, longtime Trump ally and chair of the House Judiciary Committee, opted for brevity:

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) was similarly curt, tweeting simply that "we have now reached a war phase" and threatening retribution.

This could be bad for Trump

Among the officially declared candidates vying for their party's presidential nomination, none have come out quite so forcefully against Trump as former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson. "Donald Trump's actions—from his willful disregard for the Constitution to his disrespect for the rule of law—should not define our nation or the Republican Party," Hutchinson said in a statement, concluding that although Trump is "entitled to the presumption of innocence, the ongoing criminal proceedings will be a major distraction" which "reaffirms the need for Donald Trump to respect the office and end his campaign."

Other GOP candidates were slightly more circumspect. "I had said I had hoped that the DOJ would see it's way clearer not to move forward here," former Vice President Mike Pence said, before adding that "no one is above the law."

"Stop hiding behind the Special Counsel," Pence urged special counsel Jack Smith during a speech to a group of North Carolina Republicans the day after the indictment was published. "Stand before the American people and explain why this indictment went forward."

Pence also took oblique aim at Trump himself, telling the crowd that "anyone who puts themselves over the Constitution should never be president of the United States."

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has made attacking Trump head on the center point of his candidacy, was similarly cautious, affirming that "no one is above the law, no matter how much they wish they were," before officially weighing in about the specifics of Trump's alleged crimes. He later called the indictment "devastating," telling CNN that Trump's alleged crimes are "particularly awful for someone who has been president and who aspires to be president again."

Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, long considered one of the Republicans' most ardent Trump opponents, weighed in on the indictment with a brief statement that echoed Hutchinson's declarative condemnation of the former president. "Mr. Trump brought these charges upon himself by not only taking classified documents, but by refusing to simply return them when given numerous opportunities to do so," Romney said, adding that if true, Trump's crimes fit a broader pattern of "actions offensive to the national interest."

Blame the system (and Democrats)

Of all the declared Republican presidential candidates, perhaps no one stands to benefit from Trump's downfall more than Florida Gov. Ron Desantis, who trails the former president in distant second place in most primary polls. Nevertheless, seemingly aware that a frontal attack on Trump would, as a result, alienate him from the sizeable bloc of diehard MAGA voters, DeSantis instead reacted to the indictment by pivoting away from its target entirely. Instead, he focused on "the weaponization of federal law enforcement" which "represents a mortal threat to a free society." Neither affirming nor defending the former president's alleged criminality, DeSantis only mentioned his rival in the context of asking why the Justice Department has been "zealous in pursuing Trump yet so passive about Hillary or Hunter?"

While other Republicans had leveled similar complaints as part of a broader, more overt defense of Trump, DeSantis instead focused solely on the politics of the indictment — not its contents.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Younkin, long rumored to be weighing his own 2024 bid, offered a similar pivot away from the substance of the indictment toward allegations of a "two-tiered justice system," claiming somewhat incongruously that "parents in Virginia know firsthand what it's like to be targeted by politically motivated actions."

Claiming he will "purge all the injustices in our system so every American is seen by the Lady of Justice with a blindfold on," presidential candidate and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott framed the indictment as something that gives the impression that the scales of justice are "weighted." In a nod toward bipartisanship, Scott added that "you don't have to be a Republican to see injustice and want to fix it."

Without mentioning Trump at all, former administration official and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley continued her trend of only indirectly attacking the former president. "The American people are exhausted by the prosecutorial overreach, double standards, and vendetta politics," Haley declared, condemning "the endless drama and distractions" — a swipe at the indictment, Trump, or both.

Will it change?

Beyond the immediate issue of whether Trump will ultimately be found guilty on any of the 37 federal counts included in his Justice Department indictment, there is also a broader question of whether a guilty verdict — or even just the indictment itself — will matter in the eyes of his supporters, and rivals. To date, with the majority of his fellow 2024 candidates refraining from a frontal attack over the indictment, Trump has once again managed to use his own legal peril to assert dominance over a disparate field of Republicans. If, however, his alleged crimes become a political liability for him among his own base, opportunistic GOP candidates will likely feel emboldened to attack the former president more overtly — and without fear of fatally angering his MAGA voting bloc.