Donald Trump sued by two states over business links

US election polls: Fear driving Clinton and Trump supporters

02 September

Antipathy towards Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump could determine the way many people vote in November's US presidential election.

A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll suggests that a large number of Americans plan to vote for their candidate because they fear the alternative, rather than because they are excited about their candidate winning.

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Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 38 per cent say they will be voting "against Clinton" rather than "for Trump". For Clinton supporters, 29 per cent say they will vote "against Trump".

What's more, 80 per cent of Trump supporters and 62 per cent of Clinton supporters said they would feel "scared" if the other candidate won.

Voter feelings of antipathy towards the rival candidate are stronger than any positivity they might feel about their own candidate. Just 27 per cent of Clinton supporters and 29 per cent of Trump supporters said they would feel "excited" if their candidate won. A majority – 62 per cent for Clinton and 52 per cent for Trump – predict that they will feel just "satisfied".

The numbers give Clinton a seven-point lead over Trump in a two-way contest, with the Democrat at 48 per cent and the Republican at 41 percent. In a four-way ballot including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Clinton would score 42 per cent to 35 per cent.

The RealClearPolitics "poll of polls", which averages out voting intention data from the latest surveys, gives Clinton 46.4 per cent against Trump's 41.9 percent.

US election polls: Who will be the next president of America?

31 August

Republican nominee Donald Trump is gaining some ground on his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the polls.

Clinton is currently 5.3 points ahead in the national poll of polls carried out by RealClearPolitics, down from eight points earlier this month and half her peak lead of around 11 points in March.

"For Trump, the deficit in polling has at least reached a level he can overcome as he enters the post-Labour Day sprint," says The Hill. "Clinton is being dragged down by awful favourability ratings, which have prevented her from running away with the race."

Pollsters have suggested Clinton's bounce earlier this month was magnified by Trump's feud with the family of a Muslim US soldier who was killed in Iraq.

GOP pollster David Winston told the Hill that both candidates are now "hitting ceilings of support because of their hugely negative favourability ratings". The challenge was now "figuring out how to get people who don't like them at all to get out and vote for them", he added.

Added to that, the number of undecided voters is "historically high", say David Brady and Douglas Rivers at RealClearPolitics.

In the 2012 election, third-party candidates were at less than two per cent, while today they are at eight, they say.

"Undecided voters and professed non-voters are at 29 per cent, seven times higher than in 2012," say Brady and Rivers. "If these people were to break one way or the other before election day, they could reverse Clinton's lead and put Trump in the White House."

US election polls: Are alarm bells ringing for Hillary Clinton?

30 August

Hillary Clinton still leads Donald Trump in the national poll of polls – but the latest figures reveal weak spots that will trouble her campaign team.

The Democrat hopeful is ahead by 6.1 per cent in the national average of surveys taken by RealClearPolitics. However, a closer examination shows she still has several obstacles to overcome in crucial areas.

According to polling by the Boston-based Emerson College, Clinton and Trump are tied at 43 per cent in the perennial battleground of Ohio, although Clinton has the edge in Pennsylvania, at 46 per cent to Trump's 43 per cent.

Less predictable is her five-point lead in Michigan. At this stage in the last two presidential election campaigns, the state had ceased to be competitive.

Between them, the three states total 54 electoral votes. In two of the states, independent voters are propping up Trump: he enjoys a 13-point lead among such voters in Ohio, with 47 per cent to 30 per cent, and in Pennsylvania, he leads 43 per cent to 37 per cent.

Meanwhile, there is further bad news for the Clinton camp in a national poll released by Monmouth University. It gives her a seven-point lead, down from her 13-point advantage in a comparable survey earlier this month.

The new figures follows media reports about the overlap between the Clinton Foundation and the State Department while Clinton was secretary of state.

The Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson had the support of seven per cent of those surveyed by Monmouth, while two per cent backed Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

US election polls: Americans reject Trump's Mexican wall plan

26 August

A majority of Americans are against Donald Trump's project to build a wall along the US-Mexico border if he becomes president, according to a new survey.

A poll by the Pew Research Centre found 61 per cent disagreed with the Republican presidential candidate's plan. When it comes to Democrats, 84 per cent were against it – but 63 per cent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favour the idea.

Predictably, nearly four in five Trump supporters endorsed the plan.

"Mr Trump has struggled to hit on a successful message on immigration for the November election," concludes the New York Times, "in which he will face voters far less receptive to his uncompromising proposals than those in the primary season."

Jennifer Rubin in the Washington Post says that perhaps if Republicans "understood how expensive and unnecessary this is and the source of the main problem (visa overstays), they might be enlightened".

She added: "Trump, Cruz and the GOP would be smart to remember that Americans remain largely practical and fair."

Trump has repeatedly framed undocumented immigrants "as a threat to the job security and well-being of existing US citizens", says Politico. But the survey shows that a large majority - 76 per cent - believe undocumented immigrants are as hard-working and honest as US citizens.

What the poll does confirm is that Trump's supporters have darker views of illegal immigrants than most other Americans, says the Los Angeles Times. The survey offers "a fresh reminder of just how far the views of Trump's supporters are from those held by most others in America... The deeper the support for Trump, the dimmer the views of the immigrants."

Meanwhile, a "poll of polls" on the RealClearPolitics website shows support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton running at an average 47.7 per cent, compared to Trump's 41.7 per cent, giving her a six-point lead.

US election polls: Will Hillary Clinton win in a landslide?

24 August

Democratic US presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has remained at least five points ahead of her Republican rival Donald Trump for the last three weeks, leaving many to wonder if she can achieve a landslide victory in November.

According to Politico, Democrats are busy deciding whether to play it safe and focus on beating Trump or "try to run up the score and clobber him".

"The bigger Clinton's win, the larger a mandate she'd be able to claim and the easier it'd be to shoot down the rigged-election conspiracy theories that Trump's already telegraphed he'll deploy if he loses," says the site.

On top of that, Clinton could help Democrats retake the Senate and shrink the Republicans' majority in the House of Representatives.

A poll of national polls by RealClearPolitics shows the former secretary of state is currently 5.9 points ahead of the businessman, but 2.8 points short of reaching 50 per cent backing.

The New York Times suggests this is because many Trump defectors are choosing to vote for third-party candidates.

But even with Clinton extending her lead to double digits in several crucial swing states, the NYT warns it is too early to declare a landslide – and for a very simple reason: "Landslides do not really happen in presidential elections anymore."

It has been 32 years since Ronald Reagan won the popular vote by a double-digit percentage. "The country is too fragmented and its political temperature too overheated for any single person to emerge as a consensus choice for anything nearing two-thirds of the electorate," says the newspaper.

US election polls: Trump slowly catching up to Clinton

23 August

Donald Trump is steadily gaining ground on Hillary Clinton, with the gap in national polling narrowing in the past week.

"While Clinton remains the heavy favourite in the US presidential election, recent polls suggest her victory isn't looking as assured as it once did," CBC News reports.

"A handful of swing states have seen polling numbers that are more positive for Trump than has been the case for some time," it says, but adds that Clinton is still in an "enviable position" nationally.

There are now a mere five and a half points separating the two presidential hopefuls, with Republican Trump on 41 per cent and his Democratic rival ahead with 47 points, reports RealClearPolitics.

There was an eight point gap last week, with the highest disparity in March and April, when Clinton had more than a ten-point lead over the billionaire.

"Trump has regained some of ground he lost after the Democratic National Convention in late July, when he repeatedly criticised the Muslim American parents of a dead US Army captain, and appeared to urge Russia to hack Clinton's email," says the LA Times, which also runs its own national tracking poll for the presidential race.

It comes after a shake-up at the top of the Trump campaign, with Kellyanne Conway – herself a pollster – appointed as his new campaign manager.

Trump's first speech under the direction of his new team included an acknowledgement that he sometimes caused offence and personal pain to others.

"Call it a woman's touch or the desperation of a faltering candidate, but Trump was even kind of cute Thursday when he expressed regret for some of his ill-chosen words during the campaign," says Kathleen Parker at the Washington Post.

She points out that Conway's firm, the Polling Company/WomanTrend, has monitored women's thinking on a variety of issues since 1995.

Meanwhile, a coalition of US civil rights groups has called for more international observers to monitor the November election, despite the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) committing to sending 500 - ten times more than were deployed last time.

"A confluence of factors has made the right to vote more vulnerable to racial discrimination than at any time in recent history," the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights said. "The need for additional election observers is paramount."

US election polls: Donald Trump issues surprise apology

19 August

Republican candidate Donald Trump has issued a surprise apology for his past offensive remarks in the face of stubborn opinion polls favouring his rival Hillary Clinton.

In his first speech since shaking up his campaign team earlier this week, Trump told a crowd in North Carolina: "Sometimes, in the heat of debate and speaking on a multitude of issues, you don't choose the right words or you say the wrong thing.

"I have done that and I regret it, particularly where it may have caused personal pain. Too much is at stake for us to be consumed with these issues."

The businessman did not say exactly which remarks he was talking about and the list of people he has offended is a long one, from calling Mexican immigrants rapists to belittling the family of a US Muslim soldier who died in Iraq.

The Clinton camp was sceptical. "Donald Trump literally started his campaign by insulting people. He has continued to do so through each of the 428 days from then until now, without shame or regret," said the Democrat's team.

"We learned tonight that his speechwriter and teleprompter knows he has much for which he should apologise. But that apology tonight is simply a well-written phrase until he tells us which of his many offensive, bullying and divisive comments he regrets - and changes his tune altogether."

The latest poll of national polls, by RealClearPolitics, gives Clinton a six-point lead over Trump.

US election polls: Trump overhauls campaign team as popularity plummets

17 August

Donald Trump has responded to plummeting polling figures with yet another major shake-up at his campaign headquarters.

The Republican presidential candidate has hired Stephen Bannon, from the conservative Breitbart News site, as chief executive officer and given pollster Kellyanne Conway the job of campaign manager.

"I have known Steve and Kellyanne both for many years," the billionaire said. "They are extremely capable, highly qualified people who love to win and know how to win."

The second overhaul of senior staff comes as national polling shows Trump is trailing behind his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by more than six points. Just three weeks ago, the Republican held a narrow lead.

"Trump has squandered that lead with controversial comments, including denigrating the Muslim parents of a US soldier who died in Iraq, which earned him opprobrium from many Republicans, and suggesting gun rights advocates might shoot Mrs Clinton," the Financial Times says.

Away from the national picture, Clinton is also widening her lead in key battleground states, as Trump's gaffes and political controversies dominate headlines.

"Lying low might not be a bad strategy given the Trump campaign's travails," says the Wall Street Journal.

Stephanie Cutter, a senior adviser in Barack Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, agrees. "Rule number one is when your opponent is self-destructing that you not get in the way," she told the paper.

Clinton commands an impressive lead in a number of swing states, including Florida and Ohio. Even traditional Republican states, such as Virginia and Colorado, have switched allegiances.

"If Clinton does manage to win those swing states and keep her bloc solid, the question won't be whether she'll win but rather how big her victory will be," says Vox.

US election: Trump calls for 'extreme vetting' amid sliding polls

16 August

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed an "ideological purity test" during a speech designed to outline his foreign policy on how to deal with Islamic State (IS).

The speech was "billed by campaign officials as a return to a more presidential style from a candidate who has been buffeted in recent days by collapsing poll numbers", says The Guardian. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is an average 6.8 points behind in the national polls.

The businessman appeared to step back from his controversial blanket ban of Muslims entering the US to focus on what he called "the hateful ideology of radical Islam", saying it should not "be allowed to spread within our own countries".

USA Today said the policy shift was replacing "the un-American with the unworkable", after Trump revealed his new plan includes "extreme vetting" of "people who have hostile attitudes towards our country or its principles".

"The time is overdue to develop a new screening test for the threats we face today. I call it extreme vetting," he said. Applicants wishing to enter the US would be tested to see if they share the same Western liberal values of the US, such as religious and LGBT tolerance.

Hillary Clinton's campaign slammed the plan as a "cynical ploy", saying: "How can Trump put this forward with a straight face when he opposes marriage equality and selected as his running mate the man [Mike Pence] who signed an anti-LGBT law in Indiana?"

Trump's latest policy also includes suspending immigration from certain countries and reopening the Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba.

US election polls: Who will be America's next president?

15 August 2016

Hillary Clinton has the support of 56 per cent of "millennials" - people born between 1982 and 2000 - while the Republicans' Donald Trump has just a 20 per cent backing, according to a new poll.

There are more than 75 million millennials in the United States, says Census Bureau data, meaning the gap between Clinton and Trump could be significant come November. If the poll is borne out, it would be the first time that the Democrats have scored double-digit victories among millennials in three consecutive elections.

The poll suggests Trump's weakness among younger voters is historically unprecedented. Even during the Vietnam War, a time of youthful rejection of the Republican cause, Richard Nixon was supported by 32 per cent of voters aged 18 to 29 ahead of the 1972 election.

Former White House hopeful Bernie Sanders's decision to endorse his one-time rival for the Democratic nomination has clearly benefited Clinton: 72 per cent of his millennial backers now support her, while just 11 per cent want Trump to win.

"Until the Republican Party gets in step with the rest of the country and stops embracing discriminatory and bigoted positions on immigration and LGBT issues, the votes of many millennials will be off the table for them," warns the liberal PoliticusUSA website.

The USA Today/Rock the Vote survey comes as the latest "poll of polls" analysis shows Clinton has a 6.8 per cent lead among voters as a whole. RealClearPolitics gives her 47.8 per cent support, against 41 per cent for Trump.

Infographic by www.statista.com for TheWeek.co.uk.

US election polls: Donald Trump suddenly 'less than cocksure'

12 August

Republican nominee Donald Trump continues to trail behind his rival Hillary Clinton in the polls - and is starting to look a little less confident.

According to Real Clear Politics, the businessman is an average 7.7 points behind in the national polls. He is also "trailing in every swing state and is underperforming in states easily carried by past GOP nominees such as Georgia and Arizona", says Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report.

Trump has lost support even in his more dependable demographics, such as white men, white voters without a college degree - and fellow Republicans. Clinton, meanwhile, has "solidified her base", says Walter.

Facing one of the "toughest stretches of his presidential campaign", the billionaire is starting to sound "less than cocksure", says the New York Times.

Trump, who has rarely conceded the possibility of defeat, told CNBC: "At the end, it's either going to work or I'm going to, you know, I'm going to have a very, very nice long vacation."

Speaking to hundreds of evangelical church leaders in Orlando yesterday, the "usually self-assured Mr Trump seemed to break character, lamenting his predicament, and even asking for help", reports the NYT. He told the pastors to urge their congregations to vote for him in November, complaining that "religion didn't get out and vote" in 2012.

He also "intensified his attacks" against Clinton and President Barack Obama, "repeatedly casting them as co-founders of the Islamic State terrorist group as a result of their Middle East policies", says the Washington Post.

Jake Sullivan, Clinton's senior policy adviser, said: "It goes without saying that this is a false claim from a presidential candidate with an aversion to the truth and an unprecedented lack of knowledge. This is another example of Donald Trump trash-talking the United States."

US election polls: Will 'Clinton Republicans' defeat Trump?

11 August

After continuing to hold an average seven-point lead over Donald Trump in the polls, Hillary Clinton is now openly canvassing for Republican defectors.

The Democratic nominee has launched Together for America, which aims to recruit the "growing number of Republicans and Independents who are stepping forward to endorse Hillary Clinton for president".

She has already received the backing of a number of high-profile GOP members in recent days, including national security figures, former Cabinet secretaries and members of Congress past and present. Major Republican donor Harry Sloan is trying to help the Democrat recruit others from his party, while Doug Elmets, a former spokesman in the Reagan White House, has also become a "Clinton Republican".

Elmets told USA Today that he made the decision the day Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee.

"I think that Donald Trump has hijacked the Republican party. It is no longer really the Republican party, it is the party of Trump," he said.

Real Clear Politics gives Clinton an average 7.7 point lead, with individual polls putting her up to 15 points ahead. Pollster Nate Silver gives her an 85.2 per cent chance of winning, compared to Trump's 14.8 per cent.

Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta said her "experience and temperament make her a steady leader for this unique moment while Donald Trump is unfit, lacks the temperament and is too dangerous to be in the Oval Office".

US election polls: Trump falls behind amid assassination controversy

10 August

Donald Trump is on the back foot again after saying gun owners could prevent his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, from making judicial nominations.

"Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish, the Second Amendment," the Republican presidential nominee said during a rally in North Carolina.

"By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks… although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don't know."

The comments were widely interpreted as a veiled threat towards Clinton, says the Washington Post, with critics believing "Trump was inciting his followers to bear arms against a sitting president".

Clinton's campaign manager, Robby Mook, said Trump's words were dangerous. "A person seeking to be the president of the United States should not suggest violence in any way."

Democratic senators Chris Murphy and Elizabeth Warren took to Twitter to express their outrage.

Trump's campaign team has sought to play the issue down, saying the businessman was "referring to the power of gun rights advocates to vote in large numbers".

However, CNN says he had "pointed to a scenario under which Clinton would be appointing Supreme Court judges – meaning election day would be long gone".

Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani told a rally later in the day that the media had taken Trump's remarks out of context.

"What he meant by that was you have the power to vote against her," he said. "You have the power to speak against her. You know why? Because you're Americans. It proves that most of the press is in the tank for Hillary Clinton. They are doing everything they can to destroy Donald Trump."

Clinton has not said she would abolish the Second Amendment, which enshrines in law the right to bear arms.

The Republican nominee is currently trailing in the polls. Real Clear Politics give Clinton an average 7.9 point lead, with individual polls putting her up to 15 points ahead.

Hillary Clinton soars ahead in the polls as Donald Trump falters

8 August

Hillary Clinton is riding high in the polls in the wake of the Democratic National Convention, leaving the beleaguered Trump campaign to ponder its next step.

Real Clear Politics gives Clinton an average lead of seven points in an amalgam of 11 recent polls, all of which tipped her to carry the US presidential election.

The post-convention bounce has been given an additional boost by a difficult fortnight for opponent Donald Trump, who has struggled to recover from a clash with a grieving military family that left a bad taste in the mouth of many Republican voters.

Trump has so far enjoyed consistent support despite a string of controversial comments. But for many party members, his attack on the family of a slain US soldier was a step too far.

The parents of Captain Humayun Khan, who was killed in Iraq in 2004, spoke at the Democratic National Convention to denounce Trump's policy of banning Muslims from entering the US.

In response – and against the advice of his strategists – the businessman hit back at the couple in a string of tweets. He also implied that Khan's mother, Ghazala, who appeared alongside her husband on stage but did not address the convention, was "not allowed" to speak.

Several high-profile Republicans, including former presidential candidate John McCain, condemned his remarks.

Trump then delayed endorsing McCain's re-election campaign, as well as those of fellow Republicans Paul Ryan and Kelly Ayotte. He eventually gave them his backing on Friday, in what many commentators perceived as an attempt at a reconciliation with the party establishment.

However, former Republican strategist Karl Rove warns that may not be enough to repair Trump's burnt bridges with the Republican Party.

"Victory is slipping away for Trump," he wrote in the Wall Street Journal. "If he has more weeks like the dreadful past two, the gap between him and Mrs Clinton is likely to widen and never close again."

Even if Trump does manage to avoid further controversy, says the New Yorker, he "will still have to confront potential mutiny among his fellow Republicans, a gaping disadvantage in field organisation, and the widespread belief that he isn't qualified to be president".

US election polls: Trump surges into lead after convention

25 July

Donald Trump is currently leading the US presidential race after his performance at the Republican National Convention, according to the latest poll.

The CNN/ORC survey gives the party's nominee 44 per cent of the vote, with Democrat Hillary Clinton trailing behind with 38 points, the Libertarian's Gary Johnson with nine per cent and the Green's Jill Stein in last place with three per cent. In a two-way race, Trump still wins with 48 per cent to Clinton's 45.

Clinton was expected to receive a boost in her polling numbers as the Democratic convention gets underway in Philadelphia today, but it threatens to be overshadowed by the leaked email scandal.

"Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents," says CNN.

"The convention also helped Trump make strides in his personal image," the broadcaster adds.

Republican voters also appear to be pleased with his choice of running mate, Indiana governor Mike Pence.

Trump welcomed the results in typical fashion, tweeting: "Great poll numbers are coming out all over. People don't want another four years of Obama, and crooked Hillary would be even worse."

But the former US secretary of state was among many to condemn Trump's dark convention speech as spreading a message of "fear and hate" and says her choice of vice presidential candidate, Tim Kaine, is "everything Trump and Pence are not: progressive and qualified to lead on day one".

Average national polling, however, shows a much tighter race. Clinton's once considerable lead has narrowed significantly in recent weeks and the candidates have just 0.2 percentage points separating them, according to the RealClearPolitics poll tracker. This is the first time they have been neck-and-neck since the other contenders dropped out of the race.

Similar numbers are presented by forecasters at FiveThirtyEight, which more accurately predicted the results of the last presidential election. Clinton has 40.4 per cent of the vote, with Trump hot on her heels with 39.5 per cent.

US election polls: Clinton and Trump neck and neck in Ohio

22 July

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are currently tied in the race to the White House, according to the latest poll from the swing-state Ohio.

A survey carried out by Suffolk University in Boston shows the two presidential hopefuls each have the backing of 44 per cent of voters, with 11 per cent of voters still undecided.

"It's absolutely up for grabs," said David Paleologos, the director of the university's political research centre. "The battleground state of Ohio has earned a reputation as a bellwether for how the nation votes in presidential elections, with a long history of picking the ultimate winner."

When asked about their emotions in the run-up to the vote, 55 per cent of voters said the election has them feeling alarmed, while 28 per cent were excited and eight per cent say bored.

Third-party candidates could end up being the deciding factor in the state, which would be good news for the Democrats, the New York Times says. Clinton gained a four-point lead when candidates such as the Libertarian's Gar Johnson and the Green's Jill Stein were included in the poll.

However, there are still "alarming signs" for the former secretary of state, according to Politico. "More of her supporters said they would consider voting for Trump (nine per cent) than Trump backers who say there is a chance they would vote for Clinton (one per cent)."

Average national polling paints a slightly different picture, with Clinton several points ahead of her billionaire rival, although her lead has narrowed in the past few weeks.

US election polls: Hillary Clinton holds narrow lead over Donald Trump

21 July

Polls show Republican candidate Donald Trump is gaining ground on rival Hillary Clinton, despite his party remaining "stubbornly fractured" over his nomination.

In a sign of this, Senator Ted Cruz, who had ambitions for the presidency himself, was booed on stage at the GOP convention in Cleveland, Ohio, last night for failing to endorse the White House hopeful.

Hundreds of delegates chanted: "Vote for Trump" and: "Say it", while one woman shouted: "Traitor" as Cruz tried to make his way out of the hall.

The "pointed snub" on the eve of Trump's formal acceptance speech was the "most electric moment of the convention", says the New York Times, "crushing hopes" that the party could project unity.

"The rumpus on the floor, which broke out shortly before 10pm, captured a reality that Republicans had hoped to minimise: that significant factions of the party remain hostile to Mr Trump, while his own base of supporters are fervent and unyielding," adds the newspaper.

Even "jaded journalists' jaws hung agape" as it became clear Cruz would not be backing Trump in his speech, says The Atlantic. His address was filled with "double-edged remarks that could be taken as either support for party unity or continued disdain for Trump", but ultimately he left without endorsing the candidate.

"It was the latest stunning turn at a convention that remains stubbornly fractured, despite pleas to paper over differences on three straight nights," says the magazine. "The GOP simply isn't ready to unify."

Nevertheless, Trump's support across the US appears to be close to that of Clinton's.

The latest national polling shows the gap between the bombastic billionaire and the former US secretary of state has narrowed in recent weeks, according to the RealClearPolitics tracker.

Clinton has the support of 43.9 per cent of the electorate and Trump has 41.1.

In June, there were more than five points separating the two while in April, Trump trailed by more than ten points.

Project FiveThirtyEight, which accurately forecast the results of the last presidential election, presents a similar picture, saying only three points stand between the two candidates.

However, "polling usually goes haywire during the conventions", says Vox. "A lot is happening: The primaries have ended, the parties are consolidating, vice presidential candidates are picked, and so on."

Data gathered by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien says head-to-head polls from January to April are typically better predictors of the outcome than those carried out between May and July.

"That's relatively good news for Clinton, since she led Trump by a substantial margin during this early period, although polls this autumn will give us an even better sense of the race," adds Vox.

US election polls: Can Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton?

15 July

With just days until the Republican national convention, Donald Trump, the party's presumptive nominee for the presidency, is catching up with his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton - but has yet to declare a running mate.

What do the polls say?

National polling shows the Democratic candidate's lead has narrowed in recent days, falling by more than a percentage point since Monday, according to the RealClearPolitics poll tracker.

Clinton now has the backing of 44 per cent of the population, while nearly 41 per cent say they would vote for the billionaire businessman. In April, Clinton enjoyed a ten-point lead in the same poll.

Regional polling paints an ever bleaker picture for the Democrat. Trump has overtaken her in the "critical election battlegrounds" of Florida and Pennsylvania, The Times reports.

The drop in support comes after the FBI recommended no charges be brought against Clinton for using her private email server to send confidential emails.

In a sign that the Clinton camp isn't taking the Trump threat lightly, spokesman Brian Fallon said: "We know the battlegrounds are going to be close till the end."

What about the pundits?

Clinton has emerged from the email scandal as a "wounded candidate", with a large and growing majority of voters saying she cannot be trusted, says the New York Times.

While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the decision not to prosecute her for her handling of emails, says Peter Brown of Quinnipiac University, "she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty".

Who will Trump choose as his VP?

The renegade Republican had vowed to make his selection by the end of the week – but postponed the announcement after the Nice attack. He is thought to have narrowed his list down to three: Indiana governor Mike Pence; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

Yesterday evening, sources told the Indianapolis Star Trump had selected Pence as his running mate, but the Republican's camp maintained he had not yet decided.

US election polls: Trump trails behind as he considers who to name as running mate

12 July

Donald Trump continues to trail behind his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in national polling as the US presidential race finally gets into full swing.

With less than a week to go until the Republican National Convention, the billionaire businessman is more than four points behind the presumptive Democratic nominee, according to the average on RealClearPolitics. Clinton currently has the support of 45.4 per cent of people, while Trump has 40.9.

The polling site FiveThirtyEight, which accurately predicted the last election result, shows similar results for the two candidates, with 43.1 per cent backing Clinton and 37.6 behind Trump.

Meanwhile, the Republican has announced that he will select his running mate by the end of the week, telling the Washington Post that he is leaning towards a "political" pick rather than a "military" one.

"Trump said he was prizing political experience over military experience for two main reasons," says the paper. "First, he feels as though he doesn't need much help on the military/national security front."

Secondly, the divisive candidate knows that he needs a solid and well-respected political figure to unite the fractured party, the Post adds.

"I don't need two anti-establishment people," Trump said. "Someone respected by the establishment and liked by the establishment would be good for unification."

Pundits speculate that his shortlist has been narrowed down to four potential candidates: Indiana Governor Mike Pence, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former speaker Newt Gingrich and retired Lt Gen Michael T Flynn.

"Despite speculation that he would pick a woman to rebut claims that he is a misogynist, his list appears to be 100 per cent male," says the Financial Times.

Christie and Gingrich have been Trump's most vocal supporters during the race, but Pence, who has years of congressional experience and is likely to attract the votes of Christian conservatives, is widely tipped to be chosen as his second in command.

However, the Indiana Governor "lacks national name recognition and is not considered charismatic", says the FT. "He may be too conventional a pick for a candidate whose brand is being unorthodox."

US election polls: Can Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump?

30 June

US pollster Nate Silver, feted for predicting Barack Obama's election victories with remarkable accuracy, believes Hillary Clinton has an 80 per cent chance of beating Donald Trump to the White House.

While neither is their party's official candidate as yet, it would need a political earthquake to stop them. Trump's coronation will take place at the Republican convention in late July; his Democrat rival one week later.

According to Silver, if the pair face each other later this year, Clinton will start from an almost unassailable position. According to Newsweek, "an edge like Clinton's hasn't been flubbed since 1988", when Michael Dukakis lost to George HW Bush.

Clinton is leading in almost every poll, Silver says. "Here's how to think about it: we're kind of at half time of the election right now and she's taking a seven point, maybe a ten point lead into half time," he told ABC's Good Morning America.

"There's a lot of football left to be played, but she's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."

Silver's polling site, FiveThirtyEight, became famous in the US when he correctly predicted the result in 49 US states in the 2008 election, when underdog Obama swept to power.

The site creates a poll of polls by compiling the weighted averages of predictions from every state. When Obama won again in 2012, Silver got all 50 states right.

But, as the hosts of Good Morning America reminded him, he has made one big mistake: last summer, he gave Trump just a two per cent chance of winning the Republican nomination.

Silver defended himself by saying his prediction had not been "based on looking at polls", says the Washington Times. One of the lessons of Trump's victory is to respect the polling, he added, because he led them throughout.

Silver's latest forecast has been variously reported as a 79, 80 or 81 per cent chance for Clinton due to different analysis techniques producing different percentages. Writing on FiveThirtyEight, he puts the figure at "between 75 and 80 per cent".

Trump, meanwhile has been visiting Scotland to reopen the golf course he owns at Turnberry, Ayrshire. He was greeted by a slew of protesters including a Mariachi band, a reference to his pledge to build a wall between the US and Mexico.

No senior Scottish or British politician would meet him on his two-day visit.

US election 2016 polls: Who's winning the presidential race?

6 June 2016

With less than six months to go until the US presidential election, the latest poll puts Hillary Clinton more than ten points ahead of Donald Trump.

But while the billionaire businessman has already defeated all of his Republican rivals, Clinton is still being challenged by Bernie Sanders in the race to secure the Democratic Party's nomination.

Clinton v Sanders

Former secretary of state Clinton has a nine-point lead over the Vermont senator, with an average of 53.3 per cent compared to 43.7 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP). She is also ahead in the delegate count, with 1,809 to Sanders's 1,520.

But the race isn't over yet and both candidates face a key test in tomorrow's Californian primary, where nearly 500 delegates are up for grabs.

"If Sanders beats Clinton in California, it will elevate him significantly and raise serious questions about Clinton's viability this late in the game," says CNN's Sally Kohn. "If Clinton beats Sanders, it will cement her position as the likely nominee."

Clinton v Trump

A Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Clinton a double-digit lead over the Republican, with 46 per cent of voter backing her and 35 per cent saying they supported Trump, with 19 per cent not opting for either candidate. However, the RCP average puts the two neck-and-neck, with 43.8 per cent in favour of Clinton and 42.3 per cent backing Trump.

One of the biggest problems for both candidates is their popularity. The Wall Street Journal notes that they suffer from "the worst public images in the modern history of presidential politics", with 58 per cent viewing Trump negatively and 54 per cent expressing similar sentiments about Clinton.

Sanders v Trump

When asked who they would prefer – the socialist senator or the bombastic billionaire – more than half of those polled said they would choose Sanders to be their next president. So even though the delegate maths is "decidedly against" him at this point, Sanders's campaign says he should be the nominee because he's polling better against Trump, NPR reports.

Obama v everyone

President Barack Obama currently has a higher approval rating than any of his potential successors, with more than half of the US public supporting him. Sanders comes in second with 49.4 per cent, while Clinton and Trump trail behind with less than 40 per cent each.

"History suggests that a president's approval rating can help predict who replaces him," the New York Times reports. Clinton is likely to benefit from Obama's popularity, as data suggests that an incumbent's high approval rating often means their party returns to power. However, the Democratic Party "still faces headwinds" in the race for the White House, the paper adds.

A memo Comey is said to have written shortly after the meeting in February.