What Cameron and Miliband could do to win on 7 May

With the polls showing Labour and the Conservatives running neck-and-neck – the latest YouGov survey has the Tories one point ahead – neither of the main parties’ campaigns looks likely to achieve a Commons majority: a messy search for coalition partners appears inevitable.

So, what could Cameron and Miliband do about their evident weaknesses in an effort to force a solid victory on 7 May?

Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, has an answer for Cameron: he should “develop policies that show he really is prepared to stamp on bad behaviour by banks and business – from tax avoidance and undeserved bonuses to backing the living wage campaign and then enforcing it rigorously. He could also retreat from his ill-judged ‘bedroom tax’ on poor families.” Don’t hold your breath.

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For Miliband, the where-to-go-next advice comes from YouGov’s CEO, Stephan Shakespeare – and it’s a lot more radical. Based on polling for The Times, he says “Labour has three trump cards that might deliver them a victory in the general election… Up until now they haven’t played them but by majorities of two to one voters are supporting them.”

They are:

A strong anti-austerity message: “The electorate is sick of cuts and wants to hear that spending on public services will increase,” says Shakespeare. “By 57 per cent to 15, voters who are contemplating whether to back Labour at the election, but are not certain to, support a boost in spending.”

Stay out of American wars: “Involvement in military excursions remains deeply unpopular,” says Shakespeare. “Sending in troops loses votes.”

Stand up to big business: Labour’s pledge to freeze utility prices was popular, but there is room for much more, says Shakespeare. “Britain is a more egalitarian country than most commentators seem to credit.”

There are caveats: some voters might be feeling radical, but it doesn’t mean they will back a radical campaign. And all these policies are a rejection of Blairism – and, of course, Blair won three elections.

But these policies could help Labour climb from an average 30 per cent in the polls to somewhere above 35 per cent, necessary to form a majority government, in Shakespeare’s view. They might “win back most of the [deserters to the] Greens, hold on to most of the Lib Dems who have moved across to Miliband, and even attract a few anti-establishment Ukippers”.

If Miliband is reluctant to follow Shakespeare’s formula – he’d have trouble getting it past Ed Balls, and God knows what Alan Milburn would have to say about it - he should certainly be practising hard for his head-to-head TV debate with Cameron.

According to ComRes, “two in five Britons and half of 18 to 24-year-olds say the televised debates between the leaders will be important in helping them decide who to vote for.”