Tory alarm over London seats turning Labour on 7 May

The Tories are increasingly worried that they will lose seats to Labour in London, one of the key battlegrounds in the general election, according to a report in The Times.

The report, which says “Tory alarm bells are ringing”, is based on a YouGov poll which shows Labour on 42 per cent in the capital, well ahead of the Conservatives on 34 per cent. Ukip, who are far less popular in multicultural metropolitan areas, are on nine, the Lib Dems on seven and the Greens on six.

These figures suggest Labour is on course to take four Tory seats in London and three Lib Dem seats, including Bermondsey, held by Lib Dem justice minister Simon Hughes for more than 30 years.

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Labour also look set to deny the Tories the chance to gain their London target seats. The top Tory target is Hampstead and Kilburn, which Glenda Jackson won by only 42 votes in 2010: yet today, with Jackson retiring from parliament, Labour’s new candidate, Tulip Siddiq, has a lead of 17 per cent according to a recent Ashcroft poll.

London is part of a broader ‘English problem’ for the Conservatives. They beat Labour by more than 11 per cent at the 2010 election. But according to two recent England-only polls their lead is reduced to only four per cent – enough of a swing to lose them 40 seats to Labour across England - while an Ashcroft poll suggests an even grimmer picture, showing the Tories with a six per cent deficit.

In short, the Tories need a game-changer - and fast. And the likelihood of a second Tory-Lib Dem coalition is slim.