Tories v Labour: it could be a tie on 7 May, says Ashcroft

Labour and the Conservatives could be tied on 272 seats apiece in the general election, with the SNP holding the balance of power with as many as 56 seats in Scotland, if Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling proves super-accurate.

With the Lib Dems estimated to lose at least half their 57 seats, it means a further Tory-Lib Dem coalition looks impossible: together the two parties would be lucky to amass 300 seats – way short of the 326 needed to form a majority government.

Ashcroft has pulled together data gathered in his weekly national voting intention polls and his latest polling in the marginals to reach his conclusion. As always, he is quick to make it clear this a possibility not a prediction.

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His latest marginal polling, released yesterday, confirms that Labour can expect only the grimmest news from north of the border as the votes come on 7/8 May.

In eight Scottish seats, he has found a swing to the SNP since 2010 of more than 20 per cent. On that basis, Labour might hope to hang on to just five of their current 41 seats and the Lib Dems might survive in just one of their 11 seats.

However, The Guardian is reporting that Mike Smithson at Political Betting believes it could be even worse than that: by giving the benefit of the doubt to the Scottish Nationalists in the tightest of seats, Smithson suggests the SNP could win as many as 56 of the 59 Westminster seats in Scotland.

Under this prognosis, Jim Murphy, the Labour leader in Scotland, might be the party’s last MP standing north of the border. Among seats lost by Labour would be Gordon Brown’s Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where the SNP lead Labour by eight points. Brown is retiring from Westminster politics, but his successor appears doomed.

The Lib Dems would lose the Highlands seat of Ross, Skye and Lochbar held by former party leader Charles Kennedy, who is five points behind the SNP.

The only bright news for Labour comes from Aschcroft’s polling in Tory-held marginals in England and Wales: in two, High Peak and Norwich North, Ashcroft found Labour pulling ahead. All told, he reckons Labour is in line to gain 41 Tory seats south of the border – some compensation for those bound to be in Scotland, but still leaving Miliband well short of a majority.