Tories v Labour: it could be a tie on 7 May, says Ashcroft
Polling shows two main parties could tie on 272 apiece - with surging SNP holding the balance of power
Labour and the Conservatives could be tied on 272 seats apiece in the general election, with the SNP holding the balance of power with as many as 56 seats in Scotland, if Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling proves super-accurate.
With the Lib Dems estimated to lose at least half their 57 seats, it means a further Tory-Lib Dem coalition looks impossible: together the two parties would be lucky to amass 300 seats – way short of the 326 needed to form a majority government.
Ashcroft has pulled together data gathered in his weekly national voting intention polls and his latest polling in the marginals to reach his conclusion. As always, he is quick to make it clear this a possibility not a prediction.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
His latest marginal polling, released yesterday, confirms that Labour can expect only the grimmest news from north of the border as the votes come on 7/8 May.
In eight Scottish seats, he has found a swing to the SNP since 2010 of more than 20 per cent. On that basis, Labour might hope to hang on to just five of their current 41 seats and the Lib Dems might survive in just one of their 11 seats.
However, The Guardian is reporting that Mike Smithson at Political Betting believes it could be even worse than that: by giving the benefit of the doubt to the Scottish Nationalists in the tightest of seats, Smithson suggests the SNP could win as many as 56 of the 59 Westminster seats in Scotland.
Under this prognosis, Jim Murphy, the Labour leader in Scotland, might be the party’s last MP standing north of the border. Among seats lost by Labour would be Gordon Brown’s Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where the SNP lead Labour by eight points. Brown is retiring from Westminster politics, but his successor appears doomed.
The Lib Dems would lose the Highlands seat of Ross, Skye and Lochbar held by former party leader Charles Kennedy, who is five points behind the SNP.
The only bright news for Labour comes from Aschcroft’s polling in Tory-held marginals in England and Wales: in two, High Peak and Norwich North, Ashcroft found Labour pulling ahead. All told, he reckons Labour is in line to gain 41 Tory seats south of the border – some compensation for those bound to be in Scotland, but still leaving Miliband well short of a majority.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Today's political cartoons - October 23, 2024
Cartoons Wednesday's cartoons - loving thy neighbour, an HR matter, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Giuliani must hand assets to women he defamed
Speed Read The former New York City mayor must turn over his apartment and other possessions
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Abercrombie ex-CEO charged with sex crimes
Speed Read Mike Jeffries ran the brand during its heyday from 1992 to 2014
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The Tamils stranded on 'secretive' British island in Indian Ocean
Under the Radar Migrants 'unlawfully detained' since 2021 shipwreck on UK-controlled Diego Garcia, site of important US military base
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
David Cameron resigns as Sunak names shadow cabinet
Speed Read New foreign secretary joins 12 shadow ministers brought in to fill vacancies after electoral decimation
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's Labour Party wins in a landslide
Speed Read The Conservatives were unseated after 14 years of rule
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Will voter apathy and low turnout blight the election?
Today's Big Question Belief that result is 'foregone conclusion', or that politicians can't be trusted, could exacerbate long-term turnout decline
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published