Tories take four-point lead in two polls: but is it a trend?

Two new opinion polls give the Tories a four-point lead over Labour. But are we seeing a trend developing, or is it just a blip, like others we have witnessed this year?

In the YouGov poll, the Tories have gained only a point, but a Labour drop has helped open up the gap. It shows: Con 35 (up 1), Lab 31 (down 2), Lib Dems 8 (unchanged), Ukip 14 (down 1), Greens 6 (up 1).

The weekly Ashcroft National Poll is showing the Tories steady on 34 per cent for the second week running. Again, a drop in Labour support – by a point – opens up the gap to four: Con 34 (u/c), Labour 30 (down 1), Lib Dems 5 (down 2), Ukip 15 (down 1), Greens 8 (up 1), SNP 5 (up 1).

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Just to put things into perspective, another new poll – from Populus - has Labour unchanged and still in the lead: Lab 33 (u/c), Con 32 (up 1), Lib Dems 9 (up 1), Ukip 15 (down 1), Greens 6 (up 1).

It is worth noting that only two Ashcroft polls so far this year have given Labour a lead. This is partly explained by Lord Ashcroft’s ‘weighting’ policy: he takes into account the greater likelihood of Tory supporters to turn out to vote on 7 May. Without that ‘weighting’ factor, the Ashcroft survey has Labour and the Tories on virtual level-pegging.

There is nothing sinister about the former Tory party treasurer turned pollster adding this weighting element – some pollsters even discount any respondents who did not vote at the last election – it just remains to be seen whether it makes his polling more accurate. That we won’t discover until the morning of 8 May.

In the meantime, the poll boost might alleviate tensions within the Tory Cabinet. According to a report in The Independent, there’s a growing backlash against their campaign director, Lynton Crosby, the hard-nosed Australian who insists the party sticks to its “long-term economic competence” mantra, without deviation.

Some senior Tories believe that this strategy is failing to win over enough voters because it lacks optimism. “Some ministers fear the bellicose language being deployed by the Tories alienates women,” says the Independent.

Crosby keeps telling them to hold their nerve – that the polls will come right in time.

But “coming right” means the Tories achieving a lot more than a four-point lead over Labour. A seven-point lead in 2010 was not enough to give them a majority: most observers agree they need an eight- or even nine-point lead to win a Commons majority.

With just over eight weeks to go, it’s a very tall order. The YouGov and Ashcroft polls will doubtless come as some relief. Though a seasoned campaigner like Crosby will want to wait for a few more polls before telling his whinging Tory Poms: “I told you so”.